Cubs playoff chances
Mmmm...Secret Sauce
One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.
I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?
The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.
Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.
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Recent comments
CTSteve (view)
I’m at the game—woot!
If the streak breaks, it’s not my fault.
Cubster (view)
Brewers lose Wade Miley to Tommy John surgery.
crunch (view)
25 games played with a -85 run differential. insane.
Cubster (view)
White Sox DFA Bailey Horn. I'm thinking the Cubs would love to get him back although they probably won't have a decent chance of claiming him without another swap.
WSox also call up former Cub Rafael Ortega (and additionally Tommy Pham). They are hurting and having a gawd awful April.
Childersb3 (view)
White Sox DFA'd Bailey Horn.
He wasn't producing good results in Charlotte (AAA).
But Jed might bring him back with that open 40man spot. Then try the "sneak him thru waivers" gambit.
Cubster (view)
Oh my, now I will have nightmares of me sitting in the bowels of the Wrigley security detention cell.
Cubster (view)
One more thing...
One of the reasons I come to this site...
...in addition to Arizona Phil, who is, as we all know, a treasure trove of well-written fresh information, honest evaluation, and sneaky-subtle humor regarding the entire Cub organization...
... is CubbyBlue and Tim's fantastic and timely visual takes on the Cubs (to be fair, he does have a much broader Chicago-flavored brush well beyond the Cubs). Thanks for so many memorable images. I am fortunate to own (one of my prize possessions) a print that I framed (55/200) of "The Last Out" with KB's shit-eating grin as he fields the series winning out of the 2016 WS.
https://images.app.goo.gl/WvFQs6P5UvuhgVqS8
Tim, will you visit me if I do the text security thingy and description: Tim S? Or will I find myself in a Cub detention cell.
i.e. "or send a text message to 773-839-**** with the keyword "Friendly" and include your seat location and a description of your issue.
CubbyBlue (view)
Incredible moment. Huge part of the fun of working there is when something magic like that happens, and you get to interact with baseball fans.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
That bear hug was indeed awesome. Word is that Dansby has become an outstanding clubhouse leader and that moment really demonstrated it. That reaction was one of a proud coach/mentor who’s student just excelled. I’m not even sure who was more overjoyed, Dansby or PCA. A veteran expressing that kind of unabashed support and enthusiasm for a struggling rookie is beyond fantastic to see.
CubbyBlue (view)
BAHAHA! I've actually not seen a single fight, but can't wait to see 70 degrees for sure!