The Big Freeze
Monday is the last day players on minor league rosters can be traded or moved up to a major league roster. Starting next Tuesday, and until the completion of the Rule 5 Draft on December 7th, players on minor league rosters are "frozen." That is, any player on a minor league roster as of this coming Tuesday cannot be traded and cannot be added to an MLB 40-man roster until the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft. Players on an MLB 40-man roster can be sent outright to the minors during this period, but it's strictly a one-way highway.
(Three years ago, the Cubs acquired Derrek Lee from the Florida Marlins for Hee Seop Choi and a Player to Be Named Later (PTBNL), but because the deal was made during the period between November 20th and the Rule 5 Draft, the PTBNL--RHP Mike Nannini--was not identified and could not be sent to the Marlins until the Rule 5 Draft had been completed).
At present, the Cubs 40-man roster (or "reserve list") has 39 players on it, with one opening. (FAs Juan Pierre and John Mabry do not count against the Cubs 40-man roster). With the recent change in MLB Rule 5, fewer players than usual will be eligible for this year's Rule 5 Draft, but even so, the Cubs have 50 players eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if not added to the 40-man roster by Monday:
* bats or throws left
# bats both
PITCHERS (30):
Jason Anderson (MLFA after 2007)
Thomas Atlee
Federico Baez (MLFA after 2007)
Oscar Bernard (6Y FA after 2007)
Ryan Bicondoa (MLFA after 2007)
Chadd Blasko
Bobby Brownlie
* Edward Campusano
Jose Caridad
Rocky Cherry
Alfredo Francisco
Cristian Gonzalez (MLFA after 2007)
* Luke Hagerty
Lincoln Holdzkom (6Y MLFA after 2007)
Ben Howard (MLFA after 2007)
* Fabian Jimenez-Angulo
Adalberto Mendez
* Isaac Pavlik (MLFA after 2007)
Leonel Perez
Billy Petrick
* Carmen Pignatiello (MLFA after 2007)
Jose Pina
Robert Ransom
* Clay Rapada
Joel Santo
Andy Shipman
* Les Walrond (MLFA after 2007)
John Webb (MLFA after 2007)
Randy Wells
* Jesus Yepez
CATCHERS (4):
Jake Fox
# Koyie Hill (MLFA after 2007)
Tony Richie
* Alan Rick
INFIELDERS (14):
* Gary Cates (MLFA after 2007)
Robinson Chirinos (6Y MLFA after 2007)
# Matt Craig
* Mike Fontenot
Alberto Garcia
* Micah Hoffpauir
Jesse Hoorelbeke (MLFA after 2007)
Richard Lewis (6Y MLFA after 2007)
# Albenis Machado (MLFA after 2007)
Casey McGehee
Carlos Rojas (6Y MLFA after 2007)
Issmael Salas (6Y MLFA after 2007)
* Jason Smith (MLFA after 2007)
Jemel Spearman
OUTFIELDERS (2):
Jesus Valdez
Chris Walker
As of right now, there are 39 players on the Cubs 40-man reserve list. However, with maybe three or four players likely to be added to the 40-man roster by next Monday, and with at least one or two spots on the 40-man roster likely to be allocated to a FA starting pitcher and/or FA outfielder, probably at least three or four players (and possibly as many as five) will need to be removed from the 40-man roster.
Here is the Cubs current 40-man roster:
* bats or throws left
# bats both
PITCHERS (20):
* Neal Cotts
Ryan Dempster
* Scott Eyre
Angel Guzman
Adam Harben
* Rich Hill
Bob Howry
Carlos Marmol
* Juan Mateo
Wade Miller
Roberto Novoa
* Will Ohman
* Ryan OíMalley
Mark Prior
* Glendon Rusch
Jae-kuk Ryu
Kerry Wood
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Zambrano
CATCHERS (4):
Michael Barrett
Henry Blanco
# Jose Reyes
Geovany Soto
INFIELDERS (9):
* Freddie Bynum
Ronny Cedeno
Mark DeRosa
Brian Dopirak
# Cesar Izturis
Derrek Lee
* Scott Moore
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Theriot
OUTFIELDERS (6):
* Buck Coats
* Jacque Jones
Matt Murton
* Miguel Negron
# Angel Pagan
* Felix Pie
I would say the three or four players currently on a minor league roster who are most-likely to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster by next Monday will probably come from this group (probably in this order):
1. Clay Rapada, LHP (#1 reliever in AFL)
2. Jake Fox, C (catching mechanics are still terrible, but has plus-power and a strong arm)
3. Carmen Pignatiello, LHP (stock soaring after strong showing in AFL)
4. Casey McGehee, 3B (stock rising with strong showing in MEX PAC)
5. Lincoln Holdzkom, RHP (mechanics are now all fouled-up, but he's still throwing in mid-90's)
6. Randy Wells, RHP (converted catcher, pitched great at AA, but struggled at AAA)
7. Rocky Cherry, RHP (recovering from season-ending finger surgery)
8. Edward Campusano, LHP (had season-ending arm injury)
9. Federico Baez, RHP (rubber-armed reliever, pitched for Team Puerto Rico in WBC)
10. Billy Petrick, RHP (still trying to come back from 2005 shoulder surgery)
The four or five (or six, if necessary) players most-likely to be removed from the 40-man roster (via trade, release, or outright assignment to the minors) are (alphabetically):
Buck Coats, IF-OF (the poor man's Freddie Bynum)
Brian Dopirak, 1B (will be out of minor league options two years before D-Lee's contract expires, probably better suited to be a DH anyway)
Adam Harben, RHP (now has a sore elbow, but wasn't that great a prospect to begin with)
Miguel Negron, OF (outstanding arm & defense, but has no power and just average speed)
Ryan O'Malley, LHP (suffered season-ending elbow-strain in August after surprise outing in Houston, probably no future with Cubs anyway)
Jose Reyes, C (excellent defensive catcher, but a weak hitter with zero power)
If the Cubs opt to drop one or more players from their 40-man roster via outright assignment to the minors, the player(s) could be claimed off waivers by one of the other MLB clubs, and then the player(s) could be optioned to the minor leagues by the player's new club for as many years as the player has options left.
Unless it was changed in the new MLB Rule 5, players who would have been eligible to be minor league free-agents on October 15th if they hadn't been on a 40-man roster cannot be outrighted to the minor leagues after October 15th until they sign a major league contract for the following season. So if the Cubs decide to remove them from their 40-man roster, Coats, Reyes, and Negron will have to be traded or released. They cannot be outrighted to the minors at this time. Other players on the Cubs 40-man roster in this class are Freddie Bynum, Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Roberto Novoa, and Michael Wuertz. And Juan Mateo can be a free-agent if he were to be sent outright to the minors because he has been outrighted previously in his career.
However, because they would not have been eligible for free-agency on October 15th if they had been on a minor league roster and because they do not have three-plus years of MLB service time and have not been outrighted previously in their career, Harben, O'Malley, and Dopirak could be placed on Outright Waivers and (if they are not claimed) can be sent outright to the minors if the Cubs wish to do that. I do think that if the Cubs decide to drop Dopirak from the 40, that he is more likely to be traded someplace for somebody else's misfit than he is to be placed on Outright Waivers, because I doubt that the Cubs would want to risk losing a player to whom they gave a big bucks bonus for only the $20,000 waiver price. But the fact is, even if Dopirak develops as a power masher (and the jury is stiill out), he will run out of minor league options two years before Derrek Lee's contract expires, plus, Dope's defense at 1B is bad enough that he really should (and probably will) end up as a DH.
Other players on the Cubs 40-man roster in this class (could be sent outright to the minors at this time if they are not claimed off waivers) include Ronny Cedeno, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Scott Moore, Matt Murton, Angel Pagan, Felix Pie, Jae-kuk Ryu, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Theriot, although it's unlikely anyone in this group will be removed from the 40-man roster unless they are included in a deal for an MLB starting pitcher or outfielder.
Last year at this time, the Cubs outrighted Mike Fontenot, Adam Greenberg, Richard Lewis, and Russ Rohlicek to AAA (after none of the four were claimed off waivers), and traded Jon Leicester to Texas for a PTBNL (Leicester was out of minor league options) to make room on the 40-man roster for Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Ricky Nolasco, Jae-kuk Ryu, Jose Reyes, Brian Dopirak, Scott Moore, and Felix Pie. And then a few days later, Jermaine Van Buren (who could not be outrighted to the minors because he would have been eligible to be a minor league FA if he had not been on the 40-man roster on October 15th) was traded to the Red Sox for a PTBNL to open up a spot on the 40-man roster for FA Bob Howry.
Juan Pierre was acquired from the Marlins during the Winter Meetings last December in a three-fer-one deal, with Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Mitre (who was out of minor league options last Spring Training), and Renyel Pinto (who will be out of minor league options next Spring Training) going to FLA, so packaging two or three players now on the 40-man roster--especially guys getting close to using up their minor league options-- in a two-fer-one or three-fer-one deal for a starting pitcher or an outfielder before Tuesday would help to alleviate the log-jam and allow the Cubs to protect more players.
MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS FOR PLAYERS ON CUBS 40-MAN ROSTER:
* denotes must clear Major League Waivers to be optioned to minors
NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Freddie Bynum
Angel Guzman (see NOTE)
NOTE: Because of time spent on DL in 2004 and 2005, Angel Guzman MIGHT be eligible to receive a 4th option year in 2007. A player receives a 4th option year if he has not played five ìfull seasonsî (minimum 60 days on major league or minor league active roster in each of five separate seasons) by the time his three minor league options have been exercised (4th OPTION YEAR FOR GUZMAN CANNOT BE CONFIRMED AT THIS TIME).
ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT:
Ronny Cedeno
Rich Hill
Miguel Negron
* Roberto Novoa
* Will Ohman (see NOTE)
Geovany Soto
* Michael Wuertz
NOTE: Once he has accumulated 132 more days of MLB service time, Will Ohman will reach five years of MLB service time. At that point, he can refuse an optional assignment to the minors, even though he has an option left.
TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
* Neal Cotts
Brian Dopirak
Adam Harben
Carlos Marmol
Angel Pagan
Felix Pie
* Mark Prior (see NOTE)
Jose Reyes
Jae-Kuk Ryu
Ryan Theriot
NOTE: Once he has accumulated 41 more days of MLB service time, Mark Prior will reach five years of MLB service time. At that point, he can refuse an optional assignment to the minors, even though he has two options left.
THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Buck Coats
Sean Marshall
Juan Mateo
Matt Murton
Ryan OíMalley
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