Do the Cardinals Really Know How to Draft Pitchers Better?
by CubsfaninCA
Much has been made over the Cardinals “voodoo” that suddenly takes no-name pitchers and makes them stars. They seem to do the same with some hitters on occasion, but it’s mostly the pitchers that seem to come out of nowhere.
I wondered if it’s luck or voodoo, or do they really just know how to draft and/or develop pitchers better than other teams. So I went through the last 10 drafts and pulled out the pitchers drafted by 4 teams—the Cards, our Cubs, the Braves (who also seem to have an abundance of young pitching) and the Phillies (who lately as an organization don’t seem to be doing anything well). I listed the pitchers who got to the majors and to eliminate the cup of coffee guys, used 20 Ks as a minimum threshold.
There were a few interesting anomalies: the Cards drafted Michael Stutes but he didn’t sign and later signed with the Phillies, the Cubs originally signed Sonny Gray but he also didn’t sign, and it was fun seeing our own Brian Schlitter’s name in another team’s column.
Here are the results:
W | L | SV | K | WAR | ||
Lynn, Lance | St. Louis Cardinals | 52 | 32 | 1 | 666 | 9.1 |
Miller, Shelby | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 20 | 0 | 361 | 8.3 |
Gregerson, Luke | St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 27 | 32 | 431 | 5.8 |
Wacha, Michael | St. Louis Cardinals | 16 | 7 | 0 | 194 | 5.0 |
Garcia, Jaime | St. Louis Cardinals | 43 | 27 | 0 | 484 | 4.8 |
Ottavino, Adam | St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 10 | 4 | 254 | 4.6 |
Rosenthal, Trevor | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 12 | 61 | 245 | 3.9 |
Kelly, Joe | St. Louis Cardinals | 22 | 20 | 0 | 263 | 3.2 |
Carpenter, David | St. Louis Cardinals | 11 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 1.8 |
Siegrist, Kevin | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 5 | 1 | 111 | 1.2 |
Boggs, Mitchell | St. Louis Cardinals | 13 | 15 | 6 | 233 | 0.8 |
McCutchen, Daniel | St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 11 | 0 | 104 | 0.4 |
Blazek, Michael | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 0.4 |
Freeman, Sam | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 2 | 0 | 64 | 0.3 |
Gonzales, Marco | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 0.1 |
Mortensen, Clayton | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 11 | 0 | 112 | -0.2 |
Lambert, Chris | St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 3 | 0 | 26 | -0.8 |
Lyons, Tyler | St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | 8 | 0 | 96 | -0.8 |
Walters, P.J. | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 10 | 0 | 104 | -2.4 |
20 | 265 | 235 | 109 | 4030 | 45.5 | |
W | L | SV | K | WAR | ||
Samardzija, Jeff | Chicago Cubs | 40 | 50 | 1 | 792 | 7.9 |
Cashner, Andrew | Chicago Cubs | 22 | 33 | 0 | 391 | 4.9 |
Blevins, Jerry | Chicago Cubs | 16 | 9 | 2 | 309 | 3.4 |
Russell, James | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 17 | 3 | 224 | 1.9 |
Owings, Micah | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 33 | 1 | 347 | 0.7 |
Rusin, Chris | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 9 | 0 | 70 | 0.5 |
Beliveau, Jeff | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 0.4 |
Parker, Blake | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 3 | 1 | 85 | 0.3 |
Veal, Donnie | Chicago Cubs | 3 | 3 | 1 | 73 | 0.2 |
Coleman, Casey | Chicago Cubs | 8 | 13 | 0 | 123 | -0.9 |
Raley, Brooks | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30 | -0.9 |
Gallagher, Sean | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 10 | 1 | 165 | -1.5 |
12 | 149 | 182 | 11 | 2656 | 16.9 | |
W | L | SV | K | WAR | ||
Kimbrel, Craig | Atlanta Braves | 15 | 11 | 198 | 502 | 11.9 |
Medlen, Kris | Atlanta Braves | 34 | 20 | 1 | 434 | 9.6 |
Hanson, Tommy | Atlanta Braves | 49 | 35 | 0 | 648 | 6.6 |
Wood, Alex | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 16 | 0 | 285 | 5.6 |
Minor, Mike | Atlanta Braves | 38 | 36 | 0 | 566 | 3.8 |
Oberholtzer, Brett | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 18 | 0 | 142 | 3.4 |
Doolittle, Sean | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 10 | 25 | 211 | 3.3 |
Coleman, Louis | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 4 | 2 | 185 | 2.8 |
Devine, Joey | Atlanta Braves | 8 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 2.0 |
Hoover, J.J. | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 15 | 4 | 188 | 1.6 |
Hale, David | Atlanta Braves | 6 | 5 | 0 | 60 | 1.5 |
Rasmus, Cory | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 77 | 0.9 |
Shreve, Chasen | Atlanta Braves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 0.9 |
Locke, Jeff | Atlanta Braves | 21 | 21 | 0 | 295 | 0.6 |
Fields, Josh | Atlanta Braves | 7 | 9 | 9 | 130 | 0.3 |
Simmons, Shae | Atlanta Braves | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 0.3 |
Martin, Cody | Atlanta Braves | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 0.0 |
Gearrin, Cory | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 3 | 1 | 68 | -0.1 |
Parr, James | Atlanta Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.2 |
Clemens, Paul | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 8 | 0 | 65 | -1.1 |
20 | 243 | 222 | 242 | 4051 | 53.7 | |
W | L | SV | K | WAR | ||
Cosart, Jarred | Philadelphia Phillies | 15 | 15 | 0 | 172 | 5.5 |
Worley, Vance | Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 25 | 0 | 366 | 5.2 |
Griffin, A.J. | Philadelphia Phillies | 21 | 11 | 0 | 235 | 4.3 |
Gibson, Kyle | Philadelphia Phillies | 19 | 19 | 0 | 163 | 3.1 |
Outman, Josh | Philadelphia Phillies | 16 | 11 | 0 | 226 | 2.7 |
Giles, Ken | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 2 | 1 | 84 | 2.0 |
De Fratus, Justin | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 5 | 0 | 124 | 1.2 |
Pettibone, Jonathan | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 5 | 0 | 72 | 1.1 |
Buchanan, David | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 13 | 0 | 83 | 0.6 |
Zagurski, Mike | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.4 |
Stutes, Michael | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 3 | 0 | 72 | 0.4 |
Savery, Joe | Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 0.0 |
Hollands, Mario | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 0.0 |
Drabek, Kyle | Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 15 | 0 | 121 | -0.1 |
Schwimer, Michael | Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 2 | 0 | 52 | -0.1 |
Maloney, Matt | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 9 | 0 | 59 | -0.4 |
Zeid, Josh | Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 1 | 42 | -0.4 |
Diekman, Jake | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 11 | 0 | 200 | -0.5 |
Rosenberg, B.J. | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 2 | 1 | 52 | -0.7 |
Carpenter, Drew | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | -0.8 |
Cloyd, Tyler | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 9 | 0 | 71 | -0.8 |
Schlitter, Brian | Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 6 | 0 | 42 | -0.9 |
May, Trevor | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 9 | 0 | 80 | -0.9 |
Huff, David | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 28 | 0 | 229 | -1.2 |
Workman, Brandon | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 13 | 0 | 117 | -1.2 |
25 | 209 | 219 | 3 | 2837 | 18.5 |
Based on WAR, the Braves actually have fared the best, Cards 2nd and the Phillies and Cubs are quite a ways behind. The Cardinal names that jump out are Lynn, Miller, Gregerson, Wacha, Garcia, Rosenthal, Kelly and now Marco Gonzales. The Braves have Kimbrel, Medlen, Doolittle, Hanson, Jeff Locke, Alex Wood and Minor—definitely have gotten lucky with closers. The Cubs can at least point to Shark and Cashner, but the best the Phillies can do is Jarred Cosart and Vance Worley. Interesting that they had the most pitchers overall, but few of them amounted to much--i.e. “throw it against the wall and see what sticks.” Another way of looking at Cards vs. Cubs is this: The Cards have drafted 116 more wins over 10 years than the Cubs, which could explain 12 games of why we’re usually behind them.
And if you’re thinking “That will probably change soon because of the new regime!,” from the 2011 draft they already have Seth Maness in the bigs and our hopes lie with Dillon Maples and the suspended Andrew McKirahan. And while Michael Wacha (picked #19 in 2012) is tearing it up this year, the best we can hope for from 2012 is Pierce Johnson, Paul Blackburn, and Duane Underwood.
It’s a good thing we’ve been good at drafting hitters.
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