Cubs Slump Continues

I was in beatiful Fresno, CA this weekend for a baptism and was forced to follow the Cubs through cell phone updates. First, hanging out in 96 degree weather is not fun, I don't care how damn dry the heat is. And driving up to Fresno has all the charm of driving through the nine circles of hell. I can't tell you how many wonderful smells we discovered along the way.

What also sucks is checking updates on the game to see the Cubs go up 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth with the Brewers getting shellacked and thinking all will be well with the world, only to check an hour later and have my heart drop when I saw the 4-3 Reds win. I quickly checked the play-by-play info and when I saw "Two runs score on a double to shorstop Ronny Cedeno", I knew this wasn't your garden variety 9th inning blown save. This was one to chalk up with the many legendary Cubs meltdown games.

Sigh. That sure makes for a miserable off day.

I thought it was time to start looking just how alarming this September swoon is compared to some past World Series winners. Is losing seven of eight something that happens to the best of them or are the Cubs approaching epic failure status?

Team September 1st Record
End of Season Record
Longest Losing Streak
2007 Red Sox 80-55 96-66 4
2006 Cardinals 71-61 83-78 8
2005 White Sox 80-51 99-63 7
2004 Red Sox 77-53 98-64 5

 

There have been some mentions of the 2005 White Sox and 2006 Cardinals "collapses" in September and how it might relate to the Cubs.  The White Sox did have a tough August going 12-17 and losing seven straight at one point, but went 17-12 in Sept/Oct. Now, they did enter the month with a 7 game lead that got down to 1.5 games while they were losing 10 of 15, but finished out the month strong to win the division by six.

The 2006 Cardinals entered September with a five game lead on the heels of a 13-15 August. That lead was still 7 games on September 20th, when they started a seven game losing streak and eventually losing eight of nine that lowered their lead to a half game over the Astros before finally securing the division by taking two of three from the Brewers.

None of that gives me much comfort...at all. Winning some more games though will and I do think the Cubs can turn this little slump around at any moment. The Cubs are still on pace to win 97 games and my only major concern with the team is  the health of Zambrano and to a lesser degree Rich Harden. Neither of those is anything the Cubs, Lou Piniella  or any Cubs fan can do anything about though. If they are hurt or ineffective due to being hurt, there's no September pick-up that's going to save the day. That's neither comforting nor alarming, it just is what it is. And yes, this zen-like approach is what is needed to get me through the rest of the season.

 


 

- Lou is going with Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden over the next three games and then Jason Marquis, Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster over the weekend in Houston. If Z is still hurting, it'll be Sean Marshall on Saturday instead. The rotation the rest of the way if that sticks:

September 9th @ Cardinals- Ryan Dempster
September 10th @ Cardinals- Ted Lilly
September 11th @ Cardinals- Rich Harden
September 12th @ Astros- Jason Marquis
September 13th @ Astros- Carlos Zambrano
September 14th @ Astros- Ryan Dempster
September 15th - Off Day
September 16th vs. Brewers - Ted Lilly
September 17th vs. Brewers - Rich Harden
September 18th vs. Brewers- Jason Marquis
September 19th vs. Cardinals - Carlos Zambrano
September 20th vs. Cardinals - Ryan Dempster
September 21th vs. Cardinals -Ted Lilly
September 22nd @ Mets - Rich Harden
September 23rd @ Mets - Jason Marquis
September 24th @ Mets - Carlos Zambrano
September 25th @ Mets - Ryan Dempster
September 26th @ Brewers - Ted Lilly
September 27th @ Brewers - Rich Harden
September 28th @ Brewers - Jason Marquis

I liked it better when it was Harden, Lilly and Z set to face the Brewers next week.

-  Jon "Re"Lieber has been sent home for the rest of the season and the newspapers are speculating that his career might be over.

- Mark DeRosa has accomplished one of his goals this season. No more bus trips to Tuscon. He made a deal with Lou at the beginning of the year that if he hit 20 HR's and 80 RBI's, he wouldn't have to make the long bus trip from Mesa to Tuscon for Cactus League games.

"So I told him, 'We've got to have a bet or something because I'm tired
of covering for D-Lee (Derrek) and Aramis (Ramirez) and (Alfonso)
Soriano. I think the people of Tucson would very much like to see them
play."

Comments

A few concerns for me beyond the current hitting/fielding/pitching slump:

- RF is a big question mark. Has Lou completely written off Fukudome (and why not? The guy's a disaster at the plate.)? If Hoffpauer tears it up over the next 2 weeks, is he the starting RF in the playoffs? Really? If not, what does Lou do in RF? Dero in RF, Fonty at 2B? It's a mess.

- Edmonds seems to have hit something of a wall. 7 for his last 43, I believe. Could just be a normal 10-game dip, but, still a concern given his age. Hopefully, the trip to St. Louis will wake him up.

So, the two primary lefty bats have basically been dead for a while. RF and CF are currently not contributing to the offense -- not a good September situation for a playoff team.

Plus -- the bullpen. Gaudin's back, Samardjiza's showing a few (normal rookie) chinks in the armor, Cotts is really the only lefty, Howry and Wuertz are who they are, etc.

Other than that, all is well.

Those of us old enough have seen this movie before ---give or take a few days....the 2008 September slump is 1969 deja vu all over again.

In '69 the 84-52 1st place Cubs, coming off a five game winning streak, went on an 8 game losing streak between 9-3 and 9-11, won a game, and then lost 3 more in a row. They wound up finishing 8-18, 92-70.

2008, the 85-50 1st place Cubs, coming off a seven game winning streak, went on a 6 game losing streak between 8-30 and 9-5, won a game, and then lost 1 game--- and counting.

BUT, and it's a BIG BUT

We're lucky this year. The Milwaukee Brewers are No '69 Mets and there is always the wildcard.

and for the third time this year, I post it here, and Gordon Wittenmeyer writes it there the next day...

September slump eerily similar, but situation isn't for these Cubs

September 9, 2008

BY GORDON WITTENMYER

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/11521...

Right... because you are the first and only Cub fan to make any connection between this year and 1969. And Gordon Wittenmeyer thinks that some random commenter on a blog is so smart that he must copy the crap you write.

What the hell are you talking about?

Ok you two are starting to sound like the Mike and Manny show

I am not exactly the only one that points out the absurdities in navigator's posts.

On the Cedeno play, this is what I think happened.

Originally called an error. The assumption would have been that it was a 3-2 game with 2 outs and a man on 2nd and 3rd (you can't assume a double play, or even a FC). Next guy gets a hit, so with two outs the Reds win 4-3 and all the runs are earned (error by Edmonds had no effect and Cedeno's error doesn't come into the play). Since the runs are all earned, anyway, there's no point in giving Cedeno an error and taking the hit away from whoever that was, so award him a double. Cedeno is happy, no error. The batter is happy, hit. Wood doesn't care, he's stuck with 3 earned runs regardless.

Sort of the Obama method of official scoring. Integrity be damned, just tell the people what they want to hear.

In reality, it probably should have been a infield single with the runners advancing on an error by Cedeno. Had Theriot been in, the ball still goes into center and either it's tied or 3-2 with the bases loaded. Next guy gets a hit and it's tied or game over (probably tied, since the Reds third base coach had been taught his lesson on runninng on Soriano earlier), but odds are on one of those two bases loaded hits they probably get two RBI's.

Should Cedeno have turned the DP? Probably. Would anyone else on the Cubs roster had a chance to turn it? No.

I've never understood why you can't assume a double play.

Example: Routine grounder to 2B, clean flip to SS the SS throws it in the dirt to first, where the 1B can't make the scoop. No error, because "you can't assume a double play". But, the guy clearly botched a routine play. It should be an error.

Also, when an OF misjudges a fly ball and it goes over his head-- that's not an error? Whyt the hell not?

Just off-day musings...

"Sort of the Obama method of official scoring. Integrity be damned, just tell the people what they want to hear."

Nice. I'll officially ignore the rest of your comment now, since I know it's written by an idiot.

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  • BRADSBEARD: Javier Assad was still pitching into the 6th inning, and the first batter he faced reached base on an E-4 (that was Assad's 70th and final pitch of the game). Then Leathersich relieved Assad and retired the second batter 4-3 on the first pitch of the AB (the runner at 1st base advanced to 2nd on the play), and then on an 0-1 pitch the third batter in the inning (second one faced by Leathersich) lined into an inning-ending 6-4 DP (baserunner doubled off 2nd base).

    Arizona Phil 54 sec ago view
  • Wow. The site actually loaded without an error! Happy 4th all, and Go Cubs!

    The E-Man 33 min 34 sec ago view
  • OK -- my 4th of July resolution is to try to stay more positive. So -- 10 games to the AS break, meaning the Cubs will be in first place at the break! First time since...2008? Also, hopefully, Willson, KB and Javy learned something about Familia yesterday that they can use in the future.

    billybucks 1 hour 8 min ago view
  • Hmmm, my math might be fuzzy but if he retired 3 batters with 3 pitches, how did he get a 1/1 GO/AO ratio?

    bradsbeard 2 hours 33 min ago view
  • Pls DFA Peralta when Richard comes back. Richard 1 IP, O R, O ER, 0 BB, 2 Ks in first rehab appearance. We really need to trade for a LHRP.

    chitownmvp01 2 hours 50 min ago view
  • "The Boston Red Sox were banned from signing any international players for the next year and had five of their teenage prospects declared free agents on Friday after a Major League Baseball investigation showed they circumvented signing-bonus rules last year, a source familiar with the situation told Yahoo Sports."

    https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/source-red-sox-b...

    Rob Richardson 6 hours 30 min ago view
  • The thing with Heyward is its not just free agency. He is way under performing his career #s. He's making the same % of contact but his soft contact is much higher and hard contact much lower than all his previous years so there is something very specifically going on this year causing the issues. Chances are he will eventually get back to his previous #s and it's better to get the slump now and get that hot run later but I wish I knew what is different about this year. He's either just not seeing the ball as well or a swing change is causing it.

    johann 6 hours 45 min ago view
  • Only 3 pitches for Leathersich. Not much of a rehab outing.

    Thanks for the reporting Phil.

    QuietMan 6 hours 57 min ago view
  • He's the nastiest pitcher I've seen in awhile. I'm gonna give them all a mulligan on this one.

    Coghlan's strike out was more disappointing. He was fighting off a lot of pitches and not swinging at crap, and on the last pitch, he swung at stuff he was laying off, and struck out.

    And Heyward, too. I don't blame Heyward - I blame free agency. I hate it. You almost never get a valid return on the investment.

    I look forward to the day when ball players own the teams. The current economics are not sustainable.

    Old and Blue 7 hours 58 min ago view
  • Oh, I'm sure you're right. He's not 27-27 in saves for nothing. But, man, I hope they learned last night that he didn't throw a single pitch in the zone to KB, Contreras or Baez, and they all just kept swinging.

    billybucks 10 hours 6 min ago view
  • Sounds like a much better game than last night's fiasco in Flushing.

    Old and Blue 10 hours 23 min ago view
  • I'm pretty sure it looks like a sweet pitch on the way in. How many sinkers like that are there at 98 mph? I agree that they should just do a Lackey and stand their with their bat on their shoulders until he throws a strike next time, but I can see how that's hard to do.

    The bullpen, on the other hand, is a mess, and Heyward is starting to piss me off.

    Old and Blue 10 hours 24 min ago view
  • I noticed that too. He's getting to everything, but when he gets right under it on a high flyball he looks uncomfortable

    cubbies.4ever 18 hours 58 min ago view
  • Did you expect anything different?

    billybucks 19 hours 28 min ago view
  • Wow, did they blow this game. Stupid plays by the kids in the 7th -- Almora throwing to 3rd instead of 2nd to keep the DP in order (when a DP probably wins the game) and Baez throwing to 3rd (to a backpedalling KB) instead of getting the easy 2nd out at first - cost them the game. Also, Contreras almost throws the ball into RF on a nonexistent pick-off play. And Maddon, for using Peralta in the first place. Did they do a bunch of shots in the dugout before the 7th? Unbelievably bad baseball. I thought Almora had a high baseball IQ?

    billybucks 19 hours 50 min ago view
  • men on 2nd/3rd, 0 out...and nothing.

    cubs lose :(

    crunch 20 hours 23 min ago view