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Sabermetrics
Cubs OPD Rankings: One Stat Will Rule Them All
This is a couple of weeks old, but Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory came out with a huge spreadsheet rating every player in the league on offense and defense with the appropriately named metric OPD (Offense Plus Defense). It does not take into account baserunning though, and be aware that players are compared to those who play the same position. He briefly explains the methodology in that link and a further description of the defense can be found here. I didn't spend a lot of time assessing the merits of his system, but it seems solid enough. It tells me Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were the best players in their respective leagues last year and well that certainly passes the smell test, although by no means is it the ONE stat that will settle every argument from now until the end of days.
The full Google spreadsheet can be found at this link and I've listed the Cubs team ratings and individual players below. It would have been nice to put a ranking next to each player so I didn't have to count them out, which I'm not going to do for every player, but I'll let you know that Soto was 17th in the NL and DeRosa 18th. The numbers are runs relative to average, not replacement or wins, and of course, a positive number is above average, negative is below average.The general sabermetrician's rule of thumb is that 10-12 runs is good for a win.
MoneyCare Starring Billy Beane
It looks like Michael Lewis may have his next besteller, a team of doctors take on the system by using a statistical approach to health care.
So what the hell am I talking about?
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Mmmm...Secret Sauce
One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.
I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?
The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.
Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.
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Cubs Appear Ripe for "Miracle" Season (in 1984)
No, this isn't a bold Ryan Dempster-like statement about the Cubs 2008 chances. We're going to hop into the DeLorean we have sitting around here at the sprawling TCR headquarters and visit my all-time favorite Cubs team - the 1984 ballcub.
I'm sure I'm not the only one out there who can point to the 1984 Cubs as the reason why they're still Cubs fans today. As a young nine-year old living in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago, I had not yet quite sworn my life-debt to either Chicago team. If anything I was leaning towards the White Sox as they had just come off of a successful 1983 season and Dad G. fancied himself more a White Sox fan over the Cubs. Plus me and my brother scored like 8 White Sox helmets on a giveaway day the year before and that was kind of cool.
Then 1984 hit and the Cubs-love swept through Chicago. The mix of the "Daily Double", WGN, Harry Caray and being able to catch the end of most Cubs homes games right when I got home for school was enough to sway me to the Northsiders.
But, this piece isn't about my reasons for being a Cubs fan, rather about one man's bold prediction.
Recent comments
Finwe Noldaran (view)
Phil: Great to see what Rosario is doing!
Do you think having Rosario may have influenced/impacted the front office's decision on including Hope in the trade for Busch at all?
crunch (view)
it's so crazy we got a new "barnstorming" harlem globetrotters-type baseball product that was introduced less than 5 years ago and is wildly popular all over the nation.
a notion left long in the past, unearthed, polished for modern audiences and popular as ever.
Arizona Phil (view)
No question right now Alfonsin Rosario is one of the Cubs Top 20 prospects (probably Top 15). Rosario is to the Cubs what Zyhir Hope is to the Dodgers.
Arizona Phil (view)
The Savannah Bananas will be playing the Party Animals at Sloan Park in Mesa this coming Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. The games are sold out (15,000+ each night), and berm tickets are going for well over $100.
Arizona Phil (view)
RAISIN: In the game versus the A's at Fitch Park last Friday, Mule threw half FB and half SL (16/16), and one CH (which coincidentally was the only hard-hit ball off him -- a near HR line-drive double off the LF fence). FB was 91-94 and the SL (really more of a "slurve") was 80-82, and he got three swing & miss on each pitch (six swing & miss total out of his 20 strikes). So I think it is safe to say that right now, Mule is strictly a two-pitch pitcher (FB/SL),
Sonicwind75 (view)
Recalled it was sampled in a Nas song. Did a little sleuthing. It was a Nas song called "Hate Me Now" that featured Puff Daddy. Imploring the crowd to hate somebody seems a bit overly dramatic for a keyboardist but perhaps there is some other connection to the song.
In general there has been a weird overuse of Carmina Burana's O Fortuna in sports and commercials in past decade or so. Maybe it is a fallback choice if there isn't anything else.
Sidenote, while the O Fortuna part has become a bit pop-culture cliched; the overall piece is very interesting and rather expansive in scope. I played percussion in a production of it while in college. There is a rather jovial movement set in a tavern. In the score it calls for the clinking of beer steins. Let's just say we did a lot of research to determine the best sounding beer steins.
crunch (view)
ooof...this is just as likely as anything. professional organists are weird humans.
SheffieldCornelia (view)
Maybe it is only played when the hitter thus far in the game is "oh for two"-na at the plate?
crunch (view)
who was AB when it was being played? it could be something as corny as playing it for nick fortes because fortes/fortuna...fortes...marlins...fish...tuna...sigh.
while the cubs organ player isn't a frequent groaner weaponizing the organ song selection, they all dabble in it.
crunch (view)
in 2016 hendricks threw 190 innings for 45 earned runs.
in the shortened 2020 season hendricks threw 81.1ip for 26 earned runs.
in 2024 hendricks has thrown 21ip for 28 earned runs.