MLB Draft
You Can't Win If You Don't Play
UPDATE: The MLB Rule 4 Draft Competitive Balance Lottery has been postponed until Wednesday 7-18.
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The Rule 4 Competitive Balance and Forfeited Draft Pick lotteries will be held next Monday, and while it does not appear that any MLB club will be forfeiting a 1st round pick as the result of exceeding its Signing Bonus Pool by 5%+ (although it could still happen), 12 MLB clubs will definitely be awarded Competitive Balance draft picks in next June's Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft).
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Cubs Get 16th Pick in Next Year's Draft
Baseball America has the updated draft order for the 2010 MLB draft.
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A Look at a Decade of the MLB First Year Draft
Reader Real Neal breaks down the first round of the draft in a variety of ways to see if there's an optimal strategy and how have the Cubs done relative to their drafting position.
Two topics are always in hot debate this time of the year, when it comes to the MLB draft. How have the Cubs done, and who should they pick?
With that in mind, I am taking a look at 10 years worth of first round picks to try and help answer those questions. I am only looking at the top 30 picks each year (yeah I know the Cubs draft 31st), just to simplify things. The 10 year range I used was ’96 to ’05. It’s just too early to tell what is going to happen with highschoolers only drafted three years ago. I used WARP3, even though Baseball Prospectus has got something a bit wonky going on with their WARP3 scores for 2009, which seem exaggerated. I figured since the majority of these players are still playing, though, that the slight wobble could sort of build in a little projection.
To start off with, here is some general charts, which should be self explanatory.
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MLB Draft: Nobody Knows Nothin'
The 2009 MLB draft is going to be a three day event this year starting tonight with round 1 moving into prime time on the MLB Network. That seems pretty dumb. They're going to put a press conference of guys announcing names against actual baseball games. I know I'll be watching the Cubs vs. Astros games instead. In their quest to emulate the NBA and NFL drafts, MLB forgot to notice that the other two sports do their drafts in the offseason when people have no football or basketball to watch. Granted, it would be hard to do it in the offseason, but they should at least put the first round on a Monday or Thursday and jerry-rig the schedule so there's very few games that night or make them day games leading up to the draft (I've copyrighted that idea Selig, don't try and steal it).
The Cubs have the 31st pick in the first round thanks to a few players being unsigned last year by other teams and thus getting two draft picks. The Cubs don't draft again until the second round and pick #79. This is Tim Wilken's fourth attempt at trying to pump up the Cubs system and although the only major league return so far has been Jeff Samardzija, Josh Vitters is quickly working his way to the top of the minor league prospect charts and Josh Donaldson was one of the key pieces in the Rich Harden trade last year. Wilken avoided the topic of who the Cubs might draft in a recent interview at Scout.com but did say he almost always picks the best player regardless of positional need, but if there is a hole in the system it's left-handed pitching. He does prefer shortstops and center fielders in general, feeling they have the athletic ability to move around the diamond, although he does feel the system is pretty stocked at shortstop and catcher right now in terms of depth.
Who will the Cubs pick with their first pick? I've listed below a few players that have been mentioned in mock drafts and whispers. AJ Pollock's the name you'll see the most but Jim Callis at Baseball America in his morning mock draft doesn't believe he'll last to the Cubs.
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MLB.com Needs to Look Up the Definition of Preview
So MLB.com is doing a minute and a half "previews" for each team leading up to the draft on Tuesday. You can find the Cubs version by following this link (Mlb.com has something against embedding video files). If you don't want to waste that minute and a half of your life, let me summarize the "preview" portion of the video.
"This year's first pick falls at number 31 overall and with a deep pitching crop, the Cubs will likely take advantage."
Chicago Cubs Draft History
We've had a few draft history pieces over the years, a 3-part series I did back in 2005( the third part is particularly gruesome) and one by reader "Real Neal" last year. Reader "Wiscgrad" has put one together for this year and I'll be adding it to the "TCR Junk Drawer" as soon as I get a moment.
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Recent comments
crunch (view)
“I respect his track record of what he’s accomplished,” Counsell said on Sunday morning. “And you go through these. He’s gone through -- maybe not this particular stretch -- but stretches where you’re not pitching the way you want to and struggling. And you figure it out.” -- Counsell on Hendricks
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu...
i respect his track record of no longer being in the rotation. in 2016 he threw 2 innings out of the pen, his only work out of the pen. the cubs won the world series that year. let's repeat that magic. the formula is obvious. stats don't lie. etc etc whatever...
small sample size and all, but how about this craziness...
"Entering Sunday, Hendricks had allowed an .843 OPS against hitters in their initial plate appearance, followed by a 1.056 OPS in a second meeting and a 2.449 OPS when seeing batters for a third time."
Finwe Noldaran (view)
Phil: Great to see what Rosario is doing!
Do you think having Rosario may have influenced/impacted the front office's decision on including Hope in the trade for Busch at all?
crunch (view)
it's so crazy we got a new "barnstorming" harlem globetrotters-type baseball product that was introduced less than 5 years ago and is wildly popular all over the nation.
a notion left long in the past, unearthed, polished for modern audiences and popular as ever.
Arizona Phil (view)
No question right now Alfonsin Rosario is one of the Cubs Top 20 prospects (probably Top 15). Rosario is to the Cubs what Zyhir Hope is to the Dodgers.
Arizona Phil (view)
The Savannah Bananas will be playing the Party Animals at Sloan Park in Mesa this coming Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. The games are sold out (15,000+ each night), and berm tickets are going for well over $100.
Arizona Phil (view)
RAISIN: In the game versus the A's at Fitch Park last Friday, Mule threw half FB and half SL (16/16), and one CH (which coincidentally was the only hard-hit ball off him -- a near HR line-drive double off the LF fence). FB was 91-94 and the SL (really more of a "slurve") was 80-82, and he got three swing & miss on each pitch (six swing & miss total out of his 20 strikes). So I think it is safe to say that right now, Mule is strictly a two-pitch pitcher (FB/SL),
Sonicwind75 (view)
Recalled it was sampled in a Nas song. Did a little sleuthing. It was a Nas song called "Hate Me Now" that featured Puff Daddy. Imploring the crowd to hate somebody seems a bit overly dramatic for a keyboardist but perhaps there is some other connection to the song.
In general there has been a weird overuse of Carmina Burana's O Fortuna in sports and commercials in past decade or so. Maybe it is a fallback choice if there isn't anything else.
Sidenote, while the O Fortuna part has become a bit pop-culture cliched; the overall piece is very interesting and rather expansive in scope. I played percussion in a production of it while in college. There is a rather jovial movement set in a tavern. In the score it calls for the clinking of beer steins. Let's just say we did a lot of research to determine the best sounding beer steins.
crunch (view)
ooof...this is just as likely as anything. professional organists are weird humans.
SheffieldCornelia (view)
Maybe it is only played when the hitter thus far in the game is "oh for two"-na at the plate?
crunch (view)
who was AB when it was being played? it could be something as corny as playing it for nick fortes because fortes/fortuna...fortes...marlins...fish...tuna...sigh.
while the cubs organ player isn't a frequent groaner weaponizing the organ song selection, they all dabble in it.