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Defensive Metrics
Chicago, We Have a Problem (or Maybe Not)
We do love our guest columns since we all get to take the day off from writing. Today, it's the ever cantankerous Real Neal taking on The Fielding Bible System.
The other day I bought The Hardball Times 2009 Baseball Annual. I haven’t finished yet, but as of so far, I would say save your money.
In it, though, there is an article about titled “Fielding Breeds Winning” by a certain John Dewan, which goes into some detail about how the Fielding Bibles’ Plus/Minus system helps determine which teams have a real shot at the title. I’ve argued in the comments about inherent flaws in the Plus/Minus system, but there are a lot of people, famous baseball statistical analysts who think it’s the greatest thing since high socks. My main point of contention with it, is that we know that people are biased when it comes to evaluating fielding, based on some of the ridiculous Golden Glove awards handed out, yet we go from our 500 person sample size for those awards to 3 people sample sizes for the Plus/Minus system, and somehow conclude that the latter is more accurate. Really quickly, the system looks at all plays and says for each one – if any fielder in the majors missed a play you made, you get a Plus, and if you missed a play that any fielder made, you get a Minus. Add up your Pluses and your minues and you get Plus/Minus score for the season.
Well, you might be thinking, isn’t this article supposed to be about a Chicago baseball team, and preferably the Cubs, since that’s who I come here to read about? Well, yeah, it is about the Cubs, because according to this system, the Plus/Minus system, the 2008 Cubs were living on borrowed time.
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Recent comments
crunch (view)
masterboney is a luxury on a team that has multiple, capable options for 2nd, SS, and 3rd without him around. i don't hate the guy, but if madrigal is sticking around then masterboney is expendable.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
I THINK I agree with that decision. They committed to Wicks as a starter and, while he hasn’t been stellar I don’t think he’s been bad enough to undo that commitment.
That said, Wesneski’s performance last night dictates he be the next righty up.
Quite the dilemma. They have many good options, particularly in relief, but not many great ones. And complicating the situation is that the pitchers being paid the most are by and large performing the worst - or in Taillon’s case, at least to this point, not at all.
Childersb3 (view)
Wesneski and Mastrobuoni to Iowa
Taillon and Wisdom up
Wesneski can't pitch for a couple of days after the 4 IP from last night. But Jed picked Wicks over Wesneski.
crunch (view)
booooooooooo
also, wisdom and taillon are both in chicago.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Tonight’s game postponed. Split games on Saturday.
crunch (view)
cubs getting crazy good at not having player moves leak.
taillon we 100% know is pitching tonight. who he's replacing and any additional moves are unknown as far as i can tell.
p.wisdom was not in today's lineup in iowa (rained out) and he was removed from the game last night mid-game, but not for injury. good bet he's with the team in the bigs, too.
Bill (view)
A good rule of thumb is that if you trade a near-ready high ceiling prospect, you should get at least two far-away high ceiling prospects in return. Like all rules-of-thumb, it depends upon the specific circumstances, but certainly, we weren't going to get Busch for either prospect alone.
Sonicwind75 (view)
Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention". Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."
Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost. But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.
Sonicwind75 (view)
I suspect Brown will spend some time in the bullpen due to inning restrictions. Pitched only 93 innings last year and career high is 104 innings in 2022. I would expect them to be cautious with a young player with his injury history.
Childersb3 (view)
I wanted Almonte gone last week, but that was before Merryweather went down and Little got demoted. Almonte in his last 5 appearances has gone 4.1 IP with no ER or Runs. NO hits, 3 BBs and 8 SO. He did hit 96 with his 2S FB in AZ on Tues.
I don't see Jed waiving him when we have injuries all over and guys with options that can be sent down.
I probably won't like the move Jed makes, but he can't play the "let's hope no one wants his 1.7mil remaining deal and we can hide him in Iowa" card.
That's why I think the current Bullpen stays as is and Wicks goes to Iowa.
I don't like that, but that's the fix I see.
We'll find out soon enough!!!