Projected Post-2020 MLB "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.

Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if  two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.   

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 115 days or 2+115 MLB ST post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted). 

At present there are 147 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2020 (86 dayus is actually 31 days pro-rated due to the CoViD-19 rules). So that means that 22% of the 147 (32.34 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 32) will have "Super Two" status post-2020. However, sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status).


TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2020
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, INF-C (TEX) - 2 +169 
Walker Buehler, RHP (LAD) - 2+168 
Luke Voit, 1B (NYY) - 2+165 
Clint Frazier, OF (NYY) - 2+163 
J. P. Crawford, SS (SEA) - 2+163 
Renato Nunez, 1B (BAL) - 2+163 
Lou Trivino, RHP (OAK) - 2+163  
A. J. Minter, LHP (ATL) - 2+162
Anthony Santander, OF (BAL) - 2+162 
Gleyber Torres, SS (NYY) - 2+162 
Justin Anderson, RHP (LAA) - 2+161 
Carson Kelly, C (AZ) - 2+161 
Brandon Woodruff, RHP (MIL) - 2+161 
Ronald Acuna, OF (ATL) - 2+159 (signed multi-year contract in 2019)
Aaron Bummer, LHP (CHW) - 2+150 
Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP (COL) - 2+149 
Jacob Stallings, C (PIT) - 2+149 
Max Fried, LHP (ATL) - 2+148 
Josh A. Smith, RHP (MIA) - 2+148 
Seranthony Dominguez, RHP (PHI) - 2+147
Austin Slater, OF (SF) - 2+147 
Ryan Yarbrough, LHP (TB) - 2+147 
Mike Siroka, RHP (ATL) - 2+146 
Dominic Smith, LF-1B (NYM) - 2+146 
Dustin Garneau, C (HOU) - 2+140 
Ryan Weber, RHP (BOS) - 2+138 
Yonny Chirinos, RHP (TB)_ - 2+137 
J. D. Davis, 3B-LF (NYM) - 2+137 
Juan Soto, OF (WAS) - 2+134 
Caleb Thielbar, LHP (MIN) - 2+132 
Kyle Farmer, INF (CIN) - 2+129 
Austin Pruitt, RHP (HOU) - 2+125 
+++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+125
++++++++++++++++++++++
Christian Walker, 1B (AZ) - 2+124
Yandy Diaz, 3B-1B (TB) - 2+122 
Adam Kolarek, LHP (LAD) - 2+122 
Jose Castillo, LHP (SD) - 2+121 

So if it remains unchanged, 2+125 MLB ST will be the 2020 "Super Two" threshold cut-off. 

Walker Buehler, Max Fried, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, "Super Two" ain't so super. In many cases, clubs will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him.

Becoming arbitration-eligible a year early also can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.