Historical Ex-Cub Factor

Historical Ex-Cub Factor Data

 

Thanks to the hard work of Carl Condon, I now have a list of ex-Cubs
for all post-season series going back to 1903. This data is still
preliminary, since neither of us has been able to verify exactly who
was on the official post-season rosters for every season. The data from
the most recent years is verified, but before about 1993, we are going
solely on who appeared in the World Series rather than who was on the
roster.

2001 saw only the second instance of a team
overcoming The Factor as the Diamondbacks, 4 ex-Cubs deep, won the
Series in dramatic fashion. Here's the count for the rest of the '01
playoff teams:

Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED


In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:

New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)

RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS



1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:

Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS


1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:

Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile

Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:

Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland

As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR


The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:

San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias

Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical
masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the
Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins,
respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The
Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if
they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have
won.

It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the
previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki
on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub
threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.

RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR


Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:

Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)

Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have
found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even
if one of them is
Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark
Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The
Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the
post-season roster."

Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The
Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the
Yankees.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (4) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS


1995

Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR


1994: No playoffs


1993

Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR


1992

Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR


1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)

RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR


1990

Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher

RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

 

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  • AL pitcher hits a home run for a 1-0 lead. There goes perspective

    billybucks 4 sec ago view
  • Here are the ERAs for the last five starting pitchers:
    3.40
    3.64
    4.28
    4.68
    9.45

    At what point does the manager note it's not the "other pitcher"?

    And why does he start Montero in the middle of a downturn?

    The E-Man 10 min 18 sec ago view
  • Some perspective (mostly for my own benefit): Dan Straily beat MadBum 2-1 today as the Reds took 2 of 3 in SF. Giants are 2-9 since the break and their lead over LA is down to 2.5 games. So, yeah...baseball. It'll drive ya nuts.

    billybucks 1 hour 40 min ago view
  • McNutt / Archer didn't work out well for us.

    QuietMan 1 hour 56 min ago view
  • The floor is more valuable than the ceiling. It's the same reason we drafted Kris Bryant instead of Jon Gray.

    John Beasley 2 hours 41 min ago view
  • Apparently the Yankees had the choice of either Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jimenez in the Chapman deal, and they chose Torres. 

    link 

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 35 min ago view
  • Chapman shouldn't be reserved anymore on 40 man.

    chitownmvp01 7 hours 27 min ago view
  • Interesting split on Heyward according to ESPN. As a CF, his slash line .292/.363/.375/.738. At RF: .212/.204/.300/.604. 21/72 as a CF, 58/273 as a RF.

    He's also been better when batting 2nd, but he had a nice start in the 6 hole, but has slumped ever since. He was heating up before the All Star break, but is only hitting .108 in the 2nd half.

    chitownmvp01 7 hours 35 min ago view
  • When we played the Reds with Chapman, I always thought of it as an eight-inning game. So now other teams have eight innings to try to get a lead against the Cubs. Should be a challenge, assuming three or four Cubs ever start hitting again.

    I don't really try to get to know and like these players personally. I'm rooting for laundry, for the most part. Exceptions might be when a player makes trouble in the clubhouse or in the dugout. (Zambrano and Bradley come to mind. Also Papelbon.) But I don't think Chapman is one of those jerks.

    VirginiaPhil 11 hours 8 min ago view
  • Unfortunately, a pretty good summary. It looks like next year Heyward will be getting yet another batting stance adjustment.

    The recent good news has been Baez. I'm afraid about the next league adjustment on him, though, which is probably right around the corner.

    Bryant I don't worry about too much. Just not seeing the ball well right now. He'll turn it around. Russell's been good with men in scoring position all year and he's 22ish. He'll be fine but next year is likely to be his breakout year.

    Old and Blue 13 hours 11 min ago view
  • If Travis' back-to-back-to-back walks cost Hendricks the ERA title, that would really suck.

    billybucks 22 hours 13 min ago view
  • Edit: "A lifeless loss to a lousy Sox team."

    billybucks 22 hours 56 min ago view
  • This place is a real downer after a loss to the Sox.

    Charlie 23 hours 7 min ago view
  • I expect they will go 5-9 games above .500 the rest of the year. 96-98 wins will win the Division.

    They should have one more 2-3 week hot streak in them.

    However, several players are just "average" for the last month: Zobrist, Ross, Russell, Ceasar. Montero is terrible, plus he cannot throw anyone out. -WAR. Heyward is abysmal at the plate, but a plus in the OF. Still with RISP he has been terrible. KB has not been driving in runs as of late. But Apparently the team is still above average with RISP according to S Sahadev.

    The E-Man 23 hours 14 min ago view
  • I came to that realization tonight. I kept expecting them to play better, but now I realize they aren't going to. They are a .500 team now.
    - They have one reliable starting pitcher. Jake's magic is gone, and it doesn't look like it's coming back. Lester has been lousy recently. Lackey's ERA goes up every time he pitches.
    - Heyward has been dead weight all year. I can't remember a single series where he was a significant offensive contributor. Not one. Great defense, but but if he were hitting .270 with 10 HR and played average defense, the Cubs would be better off.

    billybucks 23 hours 17 min ago view
  • new rule...no one's allowed to throw k.bryant a changeup

    crunch 23 hours 28 min ago view