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40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full), plus two players are on the 60-DAY IL 

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Last updated 4-18-2024
 
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PITCHERS: 13
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Colten Brewer
Ben Brown
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Mark Leiter Jr
Hector Neris 
* Drew Smyly
Jameson Taillon 
Keegan Thompson
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Garrett Cooper
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 12 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Jose Cuas, P 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Luke Little, P 
* Miles Mastrobuoni, INF
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Daniel Palencia, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 
Hayden Wesneski, P 

10-DAY IL: 1 
Seiya Suzuki, OF

15-DAY IL: 
* Justin Steele, P   

60-DAY IL: 2 
Caleb Kilian, P 
Julian Merryweather, P
 




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MoneyCare Starring Billy Beane

Submitted by Rob G. on

It looks like Michael Lewis may have his next besteller, a team of doctors take on the system by using a statistical approach to health care.

So what the hell am I talking about?

It seems Oakland A's GM Billy Beane is bored with baseball and Eric Chavez's aching back and decided to tackle the health care system. In this NY Times Op-Ed piece along with former presidential candiate John Kerry and former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, they call for a plan to rely more on medical evidence rather than guts, instincts and experience to chart the medical course for a patient.

It is no surprise then that the United States spends more than twice as much per capita on health care compared to almost every other country in the world — and with worse health quality than most industrialized nations. Health premiums for a family of four have nearly doubled since 2001. Starbucks pays more for health care than it does for coffee. Nearly 100,000 Americans are killed every year by preventable medical errors. We can do better if doctors have better access to concise, evidence-based medical information.

I'm not really sure how anyone could disagree, except perhaps Dusty Baker. It would seem with the tools at hand (computers and the Internet), that a structured system where diagnoses and their prescriped treatments charted against their effectiveness would be a valuable tool for any doctor that is still coherent enough to power up a computer.

We can then have websites and forums like medicalprospectus.com, themedicaltimes.com, etc where a bunch of armchair doctors could argue from the safety of their own internet connection about the appropriate treatment for a patient.

"Hey, Dr. Jones,  what were you thinking prescriping strengthening exercises when a debridement is effective 50.9% of the time, compared to 49.8% for exercises. You're a loser. Go die."

(Dr. Hecht is going to nail me on that one...I'm sure)

It is an interesting article and certainly something, along with getting all medical records online, that should be pursued immediately in this country.

In the meantime, I have a few domain names to register. 

Tags
Sabermetrics
Billy Beane
Health Care

Comments

Submitted by Chad on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:40 pm

That sounds very scary to me. VERY Nazi-like. You will wind up with decisions to not treat people and let them die just because the numbers are bad. Me no likey.

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Submitted by Arizona Phil on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 10:20 am

About Al's post at BCB:

Based upon the comments from Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry following the Cubs organizational meetings this past week here in Mesa, the Cubs will try and add an "athletic" lefty bat or two to the lineup if they can. 

The Cubs right-handed heavy middle of the order did struggle against the D'backs and Dodgers right-handed starters and right-handed bullpen in the past two NLDS, so the 2009 Master Plan may indeed involve trying to exchange one of the Big Five right-handed bats (Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, and DeRosa) for a lefty bat or two.

Soriano is untradeable, and I can't see the Cubs trading Ramirez or Soto. DeRosa has tremendous value as a multi-positional guy with power, which leaves D-Lee as the most-likely candidate to get moved. 

D-Lee does have a "no trade," but the one place he would probably be willing to go is San Francisco, so that he could be closer to his family in Sacramento, especially his daughter. And I could see the Giants having interest in Lee, to give themselves another power bat in the middle of the order. But I cannot see the Giants trading Matt Cain to get him. No way.

Rather, if the Giants were to acquire Lee and the $26M that remains on his contract ($13M per year 2009-10), they would probably want the Cubs to either pay some of Lee's salary in 2009-10, or else take back players who are (combined) making what Lee makes, at least in 2009. If it's the latter, the most-obvious candidates for the Cubs to take back from SF to offset Lee's 2009 salary would be OF Randy Winn (who will make $8.25M in 2009) and LHP Noah Lowry (who makes $4.5M in 2009 with a $6.25M club option for 2010).

Winn is 35 years old, but he had one of his best MLB seasons in 2008 (306/363/426 overall, with a 313/371/410 split vs RHP, and 25 SB with only two CS). He is a switch-hitter who can play all three OF spots (although RF is his best position) and can hit anywhere 1-2-3, depending on the needs of the team. 

Lowry missed the 2008 season after undergoing forearm/elbow surgery, so he would be a crap shoot in 2009. But that description fits the profile of Rich Hill, too, with the big difference being Hill is out of minor league options, while Lowry gives his team some flexibility because he has two minor league options left.  

So I could see the Cubs trading D-Lee and R. Hill to SF for Winn and Lowry, and then signing or trading for a veteran left-handed hitting 1st baseman with power. Mark Teixeira would be ideal, but if they can't sign him, Aubrey Huff (48 doubles and 32 HR in 2008) would be one likely fall-back option.  

As for Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs probably have had some internal discussions about how to jettison him if it becomes necesssary. Working out some kind of de facto "trade" with the Yomiuri Giants would probably be their best bet (Fukudome almost signed with the Yomiuri Giants a year ago before he decided to sign with the Cubs), but I doubt that it will happen this off-season, although I guess it could (especially if the Cubs acquire a RF). And if it does happen, the Cubs would almost certainly have to pay a substantial portion of Fukudome's remaining salary. 

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Submitted by JoePepitone on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:47 pm

"I love your quoting methodology. That's MLA, right?" MLA? Why not APA? Shut up. Just shut up. (Sick & tired of picayune citation style wars. Damn geeks.)

Submitted by Cubster on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:51 pm

This topic is way more complex than a short answer can give, but one of the problems with "concise" evidence based medicine and outcome based "pay for performance" is how flawed is the data collection? It is in an early stage but those driving this probably they won't get it right. It's hard enough to have a good scientific study that truly proves one treatment over another. Particularly when the motivation of the study is to limit cost. When a truly valid study is done, doctors usually listen. Medication rxs change based on such studies, even surgery techniques change over time although technology improvements are frequently the drivers of surgical procedure improvements. There are just many variables which must be controlled to make things comparable. When the government starts/stops paying based on flawed information, it is mostly to avoid expenses but it usually just shifts payments to other pockets. We can argue over baseball stats, argue over the intangible value of scrappiness, but even sabermetrics has a tough time measuring many things, ie. catcher defensive skills (CERA anyone?) and measuring medical outcomes is often much more subjective and the useful measurable stats are open for more debate than WARP, VORP or PECOTA. My bias is the insurance management layers suck out absurd amounts of money from the system. Might be better if the insurance companies were mutualized so their insured got the profits returned to them. The 100K deaths from medical errors stats need closer scrutiny including changing the malpractice climate but I doubt that those events would be significantly changed by evidence based algorithms. I suspect those events are more related to flat out mistakes/errors that should have been picked up on earlier, but not due to treatment off the mainstream path. For examples: That would be like telling ARam, Theriot, DeRosa and DLee that they shouldn't boot grounders in the same NLDS playoff game. Bad outcome, lets not pay for that kind of performance. ...or telling Dempster not to walk 7 batters in 5 innings work in game one of the NLDS. Bad outcome, lets not pay for that kind of performance. ...or telling Soriano his OBP isn't high enough and then getting him to not swing at pitches bouncing in the dirt when there are two outs in the last game of the NLDS. Bad outcome and Moneyball hasn't fixed Soriano, never will.

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Submitted by crunch on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:08 pm

i have no idea how the economic-social aspect of "quality of care vs. what you can afford" comes into this book/study/etc. while most all doctors spent a lot of time and money to learn their craft not all of them are skilled equally. to put it another way...you can be damn sure you got a better chance in a courtroom with your own hired lawyer who's good at a specific series of defense vs. a court appointed lawyer that happily works most of his cases through court appointment work. there's a reason those high-end hired guns cost so f'n much and naturally exclude a chunk of the population even if both guys are competent at what they do. and beyond all that...and maybe more important...how does aftercare factor into it? that can be just as important as the actual procedure to "fix" the problem.

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Submitted by Rob G. on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:01 pm

I think the key here, as I cited earlier, is to offer it as a tool for doctors, not replace them or force their hand.

Working closely with doctors, the federal government and the private sector should create a new institute for evidence-based medicine. This institute would conduct new studies and systematically review the existing medical literature to help inform our nation’s over-stretched medical providers. The government should also increase Medicare reimbursements and some liability protections for doctors who follow the recommended clinical best practices.

the last sentence is probably taking it a little too far, the first two though seem to be a tool that could be extremely valuable.

[ ]

Submitted by The Real Neal on Sun, 11/02/2008 - 11:43 pm

I do have a certain degree of knowledge on the subject of foreign health systems. I've been to doctors in seven countries (that I remember). I don't know about cost, but without a doubt, the best diagnosis I recieve is from US Doctors. In one case I reported the same symptoms to doctors in three countries, and the doctors perscribed the following: Tea Anti-biotic Rest The US doctor was the one who correctly diagnosed the illness, during about a 60 second conversation, which she then confirmed with a blood test. There's myriad reasons that healthcare costs a lot in the US, and there are reasons that Americans aren't as rugged as other countries' citizens. If we weren't the most obese country in the world, a lot of these 'problems' would solve themselves.

Submitted by tbone on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:16 pm

Yeah, when you're crunching numbers on medicine you're dealing with such a wide range of doctors' abilities, know-how, knowledge of best current treatments etc. that what gets spit out at the end could be fairly problematic. I know my Dad was told by a suburban doctor that he had six weeks to live. Two days later, after visiting a doctor at Loyola, he was in an operating room. That was over 25 years ago and he's alive today. Half the doctors out there finished in the bottom half of their class.

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Submitted by tbone on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 10:41 am

That's true. But they aren't all from the bottom of their classes. I know two docs that aren't currently practicing and both finished near the top of their classes. I should have said - of those receiving degrees in medicine, half finished in the bottom half of their classes. Short of a census of every doctor in the country, whether more from the top or bottom go on to other things is anyone's guess. My main point is - there's a lot of dumb asses practicing medicine out there.

Submitted by 10man on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:13 pm

I don't see anything wrong with it per se. It's just another tool you can use, meaning that you can choose NOT to use it. So it's better to have it available than not. Most baseball scouts and the establishment were so against using stats and new metrics too for player evaluation, but it's here to stay whether they want to use it or not.

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Submitted by crunch on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 10:13 pm

teams have been paying big money for custom stat evaluation long before the moneyball era. the idea that teams and scouts have no use for them or it's some new-fangled threat to their jobs as they know it is overblown. it's importance in player evaluation has gotten larger and you now see stat guys on-staff rather than buying/contracting info out from a separate company. ...and plenty can be wrong with a stat in the wrong argument, imo.

Submitted by Doug Dascenzo on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 10:01 am

Let me say right off the bat, I'm in no way affiliated with the website I'm about to mention, but if you like sports and making money do yourself a favor and check out OneSeason.com. It's a stock market (using real money) that trades virtual shares of pro athletes. There's one Cub available right now (ticker symbol: BIGZ), and he gained 179% today. If you're worried about it's legitimacy, don't take my word for it... WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122471163578159995.html?mod=googlenews_… Time: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1853326,00.html At least for the time being, every player listed just continues to go up. As more news outlets pick this up, more people are flooding the "market" with money. This may not be a good long term investment, but for right now it's pretty nice.

Submitted by Chifan on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 10:20 am

Paul Kinzer, the agent for Aram, Furcal, K-rod, Soto, and likely Marmol soon (according to Levine) was on Talking Baseball with Levine. Some intresting nuggets from it: * Aram has won the NL Version of the Hank Aaron Award given to the best hitter in the league. The voters for it are the brodcasters for all the teams on both media formats (70% of the vote) and the fans (30%) according to Wikipedia. He will get it tommorrow before Game 4. * He insisted that a deal for Furcal to the Cubs was really close 3 years ago, but the reason for no deal had more with contract language than money. * He thinks the market for him will be 7 to 10 teams. * He is still intrested in the Cubs. Levine said both Chicago will be looking at a MI who can lead-off) * Kinser thinks he can get 15 mil a year for Krod.

Submitted by crunch on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 10:05 pm

I LOVE THE TRACKBACK.COM FEATURE. IF YOU NEED A LOWERMORTGAGE.COM OR A BIGGERDICK.COM PLEASE CONTINUE THE FINE JOURNALISM. WE HERE AT PIMPMYSITE.COM HAVE BEEN READERS FOR $UNKNOWN_VARIABLE YEARS!

Submitted by Rob G. on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:39 am

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-26-rogers-whispe… According to Baseball America, the Cubs slipped from ninth to 15th in total budget for the amateur draft, spending about $600,000 less in 2008 than '07. The White Sox increased their spending but can't exactly brag about ranking 23rd. The top five spenders were the Royals, Red Sox, Rays, Pirates and Giants. … The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn't look like a fit, but don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable. Hendry will then try and trade Aramis for Arod, Theriot for Hanley Ramirez and DeRosa for Chase Utley.

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Submitted by jacos on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:44 am

Phil Rogers laptop needs one of those breathalizer starters that DUI guys have on their cars. His article today was one of the most stupid ones he has ever written. Manny to White Sox? Manny to Cubs? after saying a NL team would be a bad fit. What a dumb fuck.

Submitted by joebwan on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:58 pm

This statistical thing is a fairly standard item among health care geeks; it's covered in Crisis of Abundance by Arnold Kling, which goes into the idea in a lot of detail. It makes sense for a lot of the reasons Moneyball tools make sense in baseball, with one big difference: nobody sues Billy Beane because his manager didn't call for a bunt, and the guy on first base happens to get stranded at third - even though it was statistically the right call.

Submitted by Transmission on Sun, 10/26/2008 - 10:44 pm

Trans here. For those who might recall that I teach at a U somewhere in AR, and who are now reading early reports of a school shooting on a campus in AR, rest assured that I'm fine. Still busy as all fuck, but lurking around here, and very much not shot to death on campus tonight. (I only mention because I'm already getting inquiries. Good to know that there are people curious about whether or not I'm getting shot....) Be good to each other, T

Submitted by JoePepitone on Mon, 10/27/2008 - 10:01 am

Did anyone catch the ESPN 1000 radio broadcast of WS game #3 last night (Saturday night)? During the rain delay they played a tape of the 2003 NLCS game #6, otherwise known as the Bartman game. I was driving to a Halloween party and had to get out of the car in the 8th inning with a 2-2 count on Castillo. While I half didn't mind shutting off the radio at that point, it was interesting hearing the radio commentary about the Cubs and Prior at the time when they were still ahead 3-0 in the game and 3-2 in the series, especially knowing what we know now about both of them.

Recent comments

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    Indeed they do TJW!

    For the record I’m not in favor of solely building a team through paying big to free agents. But I’m also of the mind that when you develop really good players, get them signed to extensions that buy out a couple years of free agency, including with team options. And supplement the home grown players with free agent splashes or using excess prospects to trade for stars under team control for a few years. Sort of what Atlanta does, basically. Everyone talks about the dodgers but I feel that Atlanta is the peak organization at the current moment.

    That said, the constant roster churn is very Rays- ish. What they do is incredible, but it’s extremely hard to do which is why they’re the only ones frequently successful that employ that strategy. I definitely do not want to see a large market team like ours follow that model closely. But I don’t think free agent frenzies is always the answer. It’s really only the Dodgers that play in that realm. I could see an argument for the Mets too. The Yankees don’t really operate like that anymore since the elder Steinbrenner passed. Though I would say the reigning champions built a good deal of that team through free agent spending.

  • Childersb3 (view)

    The issue is the Cubs are 11-7 and have been on the road for 12 of those 18.  We should be at least 13-5, maybe 14-4. Jed isn't feeling any pressure to play anyone he doesn't see fit.
    But Canario on the bench, Morel not at 3B for Madrigal and Wisdom in RF wasn't what I thought would happen in this series.
    I was hoping for Morel at 3B, Canario in RF, Wisdom at DH and Madrigal as a pinch hitter or late replacement.
    Maybe Madrigal starts 1 game against the three LHSP for Miami.
    I'm thinking Canario goes back to Iowa on Sunday night for Mastrobuoni after the Miami LHers are gone.
    Canario needs ABs in Iowa and not bench time in MLB.
    With Seiya out for a while Wisdom is safe unless his SOs are just overwhelmingly bad.

    My real issue with the lineup isn't Madrigal. I'm not a fan, but I've given up on that one.
    It's Tauchman getting a large number of ABs as the de factor DH and everyday player.
    I didn't realize that was going to be the case.
    We need a better LH DH. PCA or ONKC need to force the issue in about a month.
    But, even if they do so, Jed doesn't have to change anything if the Cubs stay a few over .500!!!

  • TarzanJoeWallis (view)

    Totally depends on the team and the player involved. If your team’s philosophy is to pay huge dollars to bet on the future performance of past stars in order to win championships then, yes, all of the factors you mentioned are important.

    If on the other hand, if the team’s primary focus is to identify and develop future stars in an effort to win a championship, and you’re a young player looking to establish yourself as a star, that’s a fit too. Otherwise your buried within your own organization.

    Your comment about bringing up Canario for the purposes of sitting him illustrates perfectly the dangers of rewarding a non-performing, highly paid player over a hungry young prospect, like Canario, who is perpetually without a roster spot except as an insurance call up, but too good to trade. Totally disincentivizing the performance of the prospect and likely diminishing it.

    Sticking it to your prospects and providing lousy baseball to your fans, the consumers and source of revenue for your sport, solely so that the next free agent gamble finds your team to be a comfortable landing spot even if he sucks? I suppose  that makes sense to some teams but it’s definitely not the way I want to see my team run.

    Once again, DJL, our differences in philosophy emerge!

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    That’s just kinda how it works though, for every team. No team plays their best guys all the time. No team is comprising of their best 26 even removing injuries.

    When baseball became a business, like REALLY a business, it became important to keep some of the vets happy, which in turn keeps agents happy and keeps the team with a good reputation among players and agents. No one wants to play for a team that has a bad reputation in the same way no one wants to work for a company that has a bad rep.

    Don’t get me wrong, I hate it too. But there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

    On that topic, I find it silly the Cubs brought up Canario to sit as much as he has. He’s going to get Velazquez’d, and it’s a shame.

  • TarzanJoeWallis (view)

    Of course, McKinstry runs circles around $25 million man Javier Baez on that Tigers team. Guess who gets more playing time?

    But I digress…

  • Sonicwind75 (view)

    Seems like Jed was trying to corner the market on mediocre infielders with last names starting with "M" in acquiring Madrigal, Mastroboney and Zach McKinstry.  

     

    At least he hasn't given any of them a Bote-esque extension.  

  • Childersb3 (view)

    AZ Phil:
    Rookie ball (ACL) starts on May 4th. Do yo think Ramon and Rosario (maybe Delgado) stay in Mesa for the month of May, then go to MB if all goes "solid"?
     

  • crunch (view)

    masterboney is a luxury on a team that has multiple, capable options for 2nd, SS, and 3rd without him around.  i don't hate the guy, but if madrigal is sticking around then masterboney is expendable.

  • TarzanJoeWallis (view)

    I THINK I agree with that decision. They committed to Wicks as a starter and, while he hasn’t been stellar I don’t think he’s been bad enough to undo that commitment.

    That said, Wesneski’s performance last night dictates he be the next righty up.

    Quite the dilemma. They have many good options, particularly in relief, but not many great ones. And complicating the situation is that the pitchers being paid the most are by and large performing the worst - or in Taillon’s case, at least to this point, not at all.

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Wesneski and Mastrobuoni to Iowa

    Taillon and Wisdom up

    Wesneski can't pitch for a couple of days after the 4 IP from last night. But Jed picked Wicks over Wesneski.

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