2012 Predictions

My division and playoff picks for the year.

NL Central

  1. Reds
  2. Brewers
  3. Cardinals
  4. Pirates
  5. Cubs
  6. Astros

I think the Cardinals are the most talented team in the division, but there's a lot riding on injury-prone and aging players. The Brewers need to be worrying abot a depth problem as well, but they were able to survive it last year. While the Pirates faded badly last year, they were in first place in late July and if they're in it this year, there's the possibility of Gerrit Cole and/or Jameson Taillon coming up to give them a boost. For the Cubs, it would take a lot of injuries to teams above them and for Samardzija and Volstad to join Demspster and Garza in the 200 IP ranged and 110 ERA+ range or higher. Then hope Jackson and Rizzo can provide an offensive boost mid-season. Color me skeptical.

NL West

  1. Giants
  2. DBacks
  3. Dodgers
  4. Padres
  5. Rockies

Dbacks and Giants are a coin flip for me, but I didn't really believe much in the DBacks last year and think they fall back a little this year. The rest of the division is nothing to get excited about or worried about.

NL East

  1. Phillies
  2. Marlins
  3. Braves
  4. Nationals
  5. Mets

Phillies might struggle for runs to start the season, but they can afford to with their big 3. Don't see a big difference between them and Giants while they battle through the injuries and then the Phillies know reinforcements are coming. Marlins and Braves are certainly in the picture and Nats could be with a good amount of luck and how much Bryce Harper fever will end up energizing them.

Wild Cards: Brewers & Marlins

AL Central

  1. Indians
  2. Tigers
  3. Twins
  4. White Sox
  5. Royals

Tigers seem too easy a pick for a team that's going to be terrible defensively. Verlander has also pitched a lot of innings over the last few seasons. Royals still lack pitching for me to get too excited.

AL West

  1. Angels
  2. Rangers
  3. A's
  4. Mariners

This feels like it's gonna be a fun division down the stretch with the new rules and the likelihood that an AL East team takes one of the wild cards. I'm sure my homerism is showing on this one, but the Angels look very tough this season.

AL East

  1. Yankees
  2. Rays
  3. Red Sox
  4. Blue Jays
  5. Orioles

Red Sox didn't really do much to improve their starting pitching that was their downfall last year. The Pineda injury is a little worrisome for the Yanks, but they seemed stacked enough this year to withstand.

Wild Cards: Rays & Rangers

Tier Rankings

Elite: Phillies, Angels, Rangers, Yankees

Contenders: Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, DBacks, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, , Tigers, Indians, Red Sox, Rays

If Luck Would Have It: Pirates, Cubs, Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, Royals, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays

Wait Until Next Year: Astros, Mets, Mariners, A's, Orioles,

Surprise Team: If you're not counting the Indians, I'd say the Twins with Mauer & Morneau can become interesting really quick.

Comments

Where's the Dusty hate?

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but Darryl and Ron reprise the Alec Baldwin/John Krasinski New Era spots for Chicago. Hilarious:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-...

"the last time your leadoff man got to 2nd base was his high school prom"

Awesome!

Cubs lineup: DeJesus RF, Barney 2B, Castro SS, Sori LF, Stewart 3B, Baker 1B, Byrd CF, Soto C, Dempster P

Pretty awesome that we have such a great backup 1b.

Not defending Baker at all, but how many teams have 1B backups that qualify as great by your definition?

I don't think teams have backup 1Bs, actually, since it's not a position that requires special defensive skills (although they come in handy at times).

This is why a guy like LaHair can be a 29-year-old rookie (or near-rook) and why it's important whether a guy like Vitters really projects as a 3B and doesn't have to get in line for scarce 1B jobs. It's also why I think it's smart for Wilken not to waste draft picks on 1Bs as a rule.

LaHair out, baker starting at 1b. Doesn't look like DL though, says he should he should be back in lineup by Sunday

Aw, hell... this will look foolish come September, but here goes:

1. Cardinals
2. Pirates
3. Cubs
4. Brewers
5. Reds
6. Astros

I think the cards, pirates, and cubs are all being understated by pretty much everybody. I also think the reds are in for a huge wake up this year. Also, the Astros are possibly the worst pile of shit I've ever seen.

3rd place Cubs is considered 'optimistic'... sigh.

"Do they still play the blues in Chicago, when baseball season rolls around." - Steve Goodman

Rob, check your NL wild card prediction. You have the Marlins finishing 3rd in the NL East behind the Phillies and Braves but have them and the Brewers as the wild card teams. Marlins couldn't be a wild card team if they finish 3rd behind a team that does not get the other wild card slot. Did you mean to have the Braves be the other wild card team instead of the Brewers?

thanks, meant to switch division spots for those 2.

Recent comments

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  • oh, another a.russell HR...whatever.

    crunch 1 min 46 sec ago view
  • Dylan Cease throwing gas tonight for the Emeralds. In first three innings, has hit 100 mph six times, averaging 98 mph

    Eric S 20 min 36 sec ago view
  • Can I get a gif of Joe West's jowls waving as he chews gum?

    /Asking for a friend

    jacos 44 min 16 sec ago view
  • my gawd...that castillo-to-bryant pickoff was a thing of beauty. the knock on him in the minors being slow out of the crouch is looking less like a thing.

    crunch 56 min 31 sec ago view
  • bless your heart. *pinches cheeks*

    crunch 5 hours 52 min ago view
  • real shame I missed this week's episode of The Crunch Reporter.

    It's highly unusual.

    It does matter a little.

    It matters much less than you think.

     

     

    Rob G. 5 hours 55 min ago view
  • four winds field is awesome. it's crazy how minor league parks have "grown up" since the 80s/90s and that park was one of the late-80s models that showed a low-capacity ballpark could look like you're at something other than a highschool baseball game.

    crunch 7 hours 54 sec ago view
  • On another topic....I returned to South Bend last night for the 2nd time this season (still haven't tried either the deep-fried mac & cheese sandwich nor "The Porknado", as the drive home is over an hour and that could get ugly), and was pleasantly surprised to find D. Underwood pitching in a rehab start. He looked good -- although, to be fair, these are low-A hitters -- fastball consistently at 94-95 (if the SB scoreboard is to be believed -- several pitches were clocked in the 30s...) and with good location.

    billybucks 8 hours 9 min ago view
  • he gains nothing, no advantage, no saving of resources, nothing...there is not a cost/benefit tradeoff...him letting the running game go on around him for others to control isn't gaining him an advantage elsewhere. it's putting him at a disadvantage even if it's not cashed in with a run.

    crunch 10 hours 49 min ago view
  • And out of respect for the rest of TCR, I'm done on this. I'm sure I'm not the only one in the other camp, but time to let it go. (Until the next Lester start. I kid.)

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 10 hours 52 min ago view
  • He is putting himself at a disadvanage. But how much of one relative to the rest of his game? He's not Justin Germano -- he's inarguably one of the best SPs in baseball, issue or not. It would be more of thing to discuss ad nauseum if it constantly caused him to give up runs and lose games. But it doesn't.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 11 hours 2 min ago view
  • shouting down my points about lester with "well, it didn't hurt" is like saying it doesn't matter if a guy starts out walking 3 guys every inning as long it's followed by a K and a double play.

    it's like elevating ERA and wins to a high level while ignoring what it took to get there.

    crunch 11 hours 8 min ago view
  • I'm asking how much it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this year. Do you have that answer?

    I legitimately don't recall you answering that quesion, apart from the condescending silliness you just posted. So if you did answer specifically about the impact of Lester's issue, I'd like to re-read it. Thanks.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 11 hours 21 min ago view
  • if runner = on base and pitcher = j.lester then lead = large

    if lead = large then probability of extra base on following hit > average of mean

    okay, enough of that silliness...

    ...you can read more on the thread i copy/pasted this from the last time you decided you needed to talk to me about me.

    crunch 11 hours 27 min ago view
  • Thank you for your answer.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 11 hours 31 min ago view
  • bless your heart.

    crunch 11 hours 32 min ago view