Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

39 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (one slot is open), plus two players are on the 60-DAY IL and one player has been DESIGNATED FOR ASSIGNMENT (DFA)   

26 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE, and nine players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors, three players are on the 15-DAY IL, and one player is on the 10-DAY IL

Last updated 4-23-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 13
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Colten Brewer
Ben Brown
* Shota Imanaga
Mark Leiter Jr
* Luke Little
Hector Neris 
Jameson Taillon 
Keegan Thompson
Hayden Wesneski 
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
Christopher Morel
* Matt Mervis
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 9 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Jose Cuas, P 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Miles Mastrobuoni, INF
Daniel Palencia, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 

10-DAY IL: 1 
Seiya Suzuki, OF

15-DAY IL: 3
Kyle Hendricks, P 
* Drew Smyly, P 
* Justin Steele, P   

60-DAY IL: 2 
Caleb Kilian, P 
Julian Merryweather, P

DFA: 1 
Garrett Cooper, 1B 
 




Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

Submitted by Rob G. on

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

The following list is the top AL and NL team and the first team listed had the better "Secret Sauce" score, thus the team supposed to win the World Series according to this BP metric.

2007: Red Sox vs Diamondbacks (Cubs were 3rd among playoff teams)

2006: Twins vs. Mets (Cardinals were 8th among playoff teams)

2005: Angels vs. Houston (White Sox were 3rd among playoff teams. Amusingly the Cubs were 1st overall that year)

2004: Red Sox vs. Dodgers

2003: Athletics vs. Cubs (Marlins were 8th among playoff teams)

2002: Diamondbacks vs. Angels

2001: Diamondbacks vs. Yankees (the 116-win Mariners were 3rd among AL playoff teams and 5th among all playoff teams, thanks to low strikeout rates and an average-rated bullpen).

2000: White Sox vs. Cardinals (Yankees were 2nd among playoff teams)

They nailed 2001 and got both Red Sox years correct. The two teams they were the most off on were the 2006 Cardinals and 2003 Marlins, which could arguably be the two biggest surprise World Series winners of this decade.

As for 2008, the potential playoff teams are below with their overall rank in parenthesis (of course, non-playoff teams could score well in this metric but they don't get to play in the playoffs)

Team
FRAA
FRAA Rank
EqK9
EqK9 Rank
WXRL
WXRL Rank
Score
Boston (1st)
 38  4th  7.5 1st
2.97
11th
16
Angels (3rd)
28
6th
 6.8 9th
5.31
3rd
18
Cubs (4th)
 54
2nd
7.4
3rd
1.98
16th
21
White Sox(5th)
-17
21st
7.2
4th
4.62
5th
30
Rays(6th)
58
1st
6.7
11th
1.62
20th
32
Phillies (12th)
-3
 17th
 6.1
22nd
7.45
1st
40
Twins (16th)
11
11th
5.8
27th
4.58
6th
44
Brewers (17th)
 15  10th 6.1
20th
2.79
14th
44
Dodgers (19th)
-2
15th
6.6
12th
1.72
19th
46
Mets (20th)
16
9th
6.2
15th
1.46
23rd
47

There's a big drop-off there after the first three teams and I should note that they use Billy Wagner as the Mets closer, so it's even more bleak for the Metropolitans.The Cubs have a large advantage over any other NL team, as they do in just about every statistical  category.

The weak link, as expected, is the bullpen and particularly Kerry Wood, who hasn't been quite as lights out as we all would have liked. Some of that WXRL score though is attributed to him missing time as it is a cumulative stat. And for what it's worth, Carlos Marmol has been the 2nd best reliever in the NL this year by WXRL with a 4.95 behind the Phillies Brad Lidge. The Cubs of course aren't going to mess with the formula of Marmol setting up Wood, and there will likely be times in the playoffs where that will actually be beneficial for the Cubs as Marmol will end up facing the opposing teams better hitters. I also hold the belief that Lou should strongly consider using Marmol for two innings on the games before any scheduled off days.

It might not be a sports almanac from the future, but it'll have to do for this year.

P.S. - You can play "All the Way" to your heart's content on the lower right sidebar.
Tags
Sabermetrics
Cubs playoff chances

Comments

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:30 pm

If you put $100 a year on whomever the BP "Secret Sauce"  predicted as the World Series winner before the playoffs, would you come out ahead over the last 8 years?

I guess that means knowing the odds of each winner going into the postseason that year.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:41 pm

I put some down on the cubs before the season. They were 10:1 at that point. I just wish i had put more than 10 bucks at this point.

Submitted by blockhead25 on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:47 pm

Cubs had a 97% chance of winning game six in 2003. Cubs didn't lose 2 in a row with Wood and Prior on the mound in 2003. When it comes to the playoffs, I go out of my way to ignore stats. The series are just too short to be able to accurately predict with any confidence based on stats. 1 great starting pitcher can be all a team needs in a short series, and a couple unlucky breaks in a 7 game series is all that's needed to turn it around on it's head. For the record, I was a fantastic 0-7 in predicting playoff series outcomes in 2006. I think I'll refrain this year...and just wait for the games to be played.

[ ]

Submitted by blockhead25 on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:35 pm

yes, it was with 1 out in the 8th. (Although I think BP showed something like 93% cubs would win the series when they went up 3-1 in games) My point is, over the course of a 162 game season, the fluke's will balance each other out and looking at stats and predicting a certain outcome has some merit. In a playoff series, a fluke turns the series on it's head and wipes out any meaningful predictive stats. All it took was Prior and Wood losing back-to-back once to make that stat entirely meaningless.

[ ]

Submitted by The Joe on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:34 pm

I didn't say it was cut and dry. I'm saying that a better record for a team in the East, in one particular year, than a team in the Central doesn't prove them to be a better team. Nor does beating them head to head in the playoffs...though I'd say the Cubs 'beat themselves', if that's possible. 'Better' is entirely subjective, thus it'll always be uncut and wet.

[ ]

Submitted by The Joe on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:03 pm

Well then you need to reinvest yourself in the study of the English language. Does that 'make' them a better team? No. I didn't say that they were or were not a better team. I said that the record doesn't prove (nor disprove) whether a team was better than another team.

Submitted by The Joe on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:25 pm

I like the Cubs to win because their goodness outweighs the goodness of other teams. Also, they've got more heart, guts, grit, fire and desire. Those are all the stats I need.

Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 09/24/2008 - 09:18 pm

out of the WS participants predicted by this metric (16 total)...5 were ousted in the first round.

Submitted by Cubster on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 09:51 am

Also, they've got more heart, guts, grit, fire and desire. Those are all the stats I need. -------------- don't forget to include SCRAPPINESS. That's the key ingredient. one of the scrappy three as quoted as saying they refer to themselves as "the little fighters"...so we got that going for us as well.

Recent comments

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Things I've been wrong about:

    -Tauchman is fine as a 4th OF. I knew that. I just want a better LH DH option and he was really the DH for us until Seiya got hurt. I'm glad Mervis is getting a chance at it. Caissie is coming for that job for sure. But Tauchman continues to be highly useful as a 4th OF with Seiya being hurt

    -I wanted Yency to go to get guys at Iowa a chance. Guys like Palencia and Sanders or RileyT. Maybe even Hodge! But Yency has been better the last two plus weeks. He did hit 96 the other day. He was 93 in Texas to open the season.

    -Leiter has his split working enough. It just needs to stay there

    -I was surprised Jed picked Wisdom over Cooper. I wonder if this happens if Seiya wasn't hurt. Wisdom has more power. Cooper is the better hitter. Jed picked Wisdom and Wisdom had an option left as well.

    -Palencia just doesn't miss enough bats. Similar to ManRod, just two yrs younger. ManRod is killing AAA for TB right now!

    Things I got right so far:

    -Hendricks. Sorry Kyle. You got paid though!

    Jed, you missed there.

    -Smyly. If Jed could've traded him before or during ST, then he should have and saved some cash.

    -Mastro.  Not a LH DH. Pinch runner. Defensive utility. Maybe he's better than Madrigal but didn't get a legit chance to prove it.

    -Luke Little is good. He's had one bad outing. That's it. Needs to get better entering with guys on base. But he needs to stay in MLB.

    -Oh yeah....Morel is doing fine at 3B! He'll get better as well!!

  • crunch (view)

    bellinger "right rib contusion"

  • Childersb3 (view)

    South Bend just lost the lead in the bottom of the 9th on the weirdest scenario, ever.

    It's absolutely pouring rain....men on 1st and 2nd, 1out....JPatterson asks for a new ball, but no time out was called....he throws the old ball toward the dugout (not sure if it rolled out of play).....the ump declares the runners get two bases each so one run scores. Then a single up the middle ties the game.

    The rain was coming down in buckets at this point.

    Just weird

  • crunch (view)

    ...and bellinger is gone in the 7th because of that 2nd blown chance and the wall he bounced off of...

    hopefully his rib cage/shoulder feels better tomorrow, we just got happ back.

  • Childersb3 (view)

    Phil,

    Any thoughts on Y. Rojas' stuff and Y. Melendez's game (I believe I've asked about him before, sorry)?

  • crunch (view)

    wow, things are moving fast.  hopefully it continues.

  • crunch (view)

    morel with 4 clean plays in 4 innings...showed off his 100000000mph arm a couple times.

    cody bellinger not having a good 4th, though...5 run leads are handy when your CF is making your pitcher have a 5-out inning.  2nd blown chance was ruled a hit even though it went in/out of his glove...1st was lost in the lights, also ruled a hit.

  • crunch (view)

    welcome back happ!  double off the wall 1st PA back.

  • crunch (view)

    oh yeah, totally, i was just chiming about why i fan like i fan.

    i would like nothing more than hendricks to keep on hendricks'ing.  guys with his stuff can throw for a long, long time as long as it works.

    he velocity is actually up a minor amount this year.  it's really "damn" when a guy like him not only has gas in the tank, but it's looking like it was years ago.  he added a curve a few years ago and it helped a little bit, but he's throwing it less and less while the fb/change combo are less effective.

  • Alexander Dimm (view)

    CRUNCH—There is no one person in this community I’m talking about.  My remarks were not directed at you or anyone, but at a tone I’ve noticed lately. 

    You have a great, dry sense of humor and there is thought behind your comments.   You and I don’t always agree but I always understand your position.  

    Lastly, and I’ll be quiet, I agree with you on Hendricks.  We can dislike the recent performance but still love the guy.  Lots of questions about his future.
     

Click HERE for the last 50 comments