Does Wells Deserve the Rookie of the Year?

I think they're on the verge of announcing the N.L. Rookie of the Year and Randy Wells was in the running for most of the season. Ultimately I don't think he'll get more than a few third place votes from the Chicago writers and I don't have much time to put together a full analysis, so I'm just going to lazily look at WAR values over at Fangraphs.

Randy Wells - 3.0

Garrett Jones - 2.6

J.A. Happ - 1.8

Chris Coghlan - 2.3

Andrew McCutchen - 3.4

Tommy Hanson - 2.6

Casey McGehee - 2.2

Colby Rasmus - 2.3

My guess is that it ends up Hanson, McCutchen, Happ by the voters and I would certainly encourage a more robust analysis than just WAR values, but there you have it. The Internet Baseball Awards voted Hanson the winner with Wells finishing 8th, for what it's worth.

On the AL side,  Elvis Andrus and Rick Porcello seem to be getting the most press with Andrew Bailey also in the mix.  Fangraphs has Andrus at 3.0 WAR, Porcello at 1.8 and Bailey at 2.4. Pitchers Jeff Niemann(3.2 WAR) and Brett Anderson(3.8 WAR) both surpass Porcello by WAR values but don't seem to be getting much hype. My guess is the voters give it to Porcello as most of Andrus's value came from his glove. Porcello got the nod at the Internet Baseball Awards.


Andrew Bailey wins the A.L. award with Andrus and Porcello finishing second and third. Chris Coghlan took the N.L. award. He was followed by Happ, Hanson, McCutchen, McGehee and then Wells finishing 6th.

 

Comments

Wow, no love for Beckham. Took over new position and played good.

2.0 WAR fwiw...I ignore White Sox players on principle.

WAR

What is it good for?

absolutey nothing?

now say it again

Huh!

Good God, y'all!

lol

http://wiklifield.thecubreporter.com/Cubs_Rookie_o...

thanks to WISCGRAD for most of the work on that one...

At least Wells can take consolation in the fact that he'll still be a major league player in five years when Coghlan is calling Matt Murton and asking why nobody wants to sign a corner outfielder with limited power and poor defense. Phooey.

i barely know anything about Coghlan, but isn't he a 2B that played the outfield because of Uggla? His minor league numbers look interesting, although similar to Murton as you mention, contact guy, walks a lot, but not much home run power.

fwiw, Coghlan played 1 game in left field in the minors before playing for the Marlins. 246 at 2B and 42 at 3b, so I assume if they move Uggla, he may get his 2b job back.

I didn't know that - I'll give him a pass on his defense if he was playing out of position. But his D numbers did look very bad in 2009. There's always room for improvement - if he spends more time in the cage and raises his average a little higher, maybe he can win a Gold Glove.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091116&c...

says Cubs and Tigres talked last week, Castro won't be moved, seems to think they'll tender Fontenot still, and some odd line that Byrd would be cheaper than Granderson next year. I guess when you account the cost of players to get Granderson, but I assume Byrd gets more than $5.5M next season.

I doubt that the market for Marlon Byrd can be all that hot?

Unless his agent can get Jim Hendry to overpay by his normal overpayment methods, then I can see Marlon getting Reed Johnson 2009 type money.

1/3
2/6

Maybe a couple of million in possible incentives.

Forth Outfielders don't get 3/30's and 4/48's in most organizations.

3/18 or 3/24 is what he's supposedly asking, my guess is they can maybe get him in the 2/12 to 2/15 range with a third year option....

They'd be signing him to be a starter off the free agent market, not as a platoon partner with less than 6 years service time, so he'll do better than Reed did in 2009. Byrd seems to be a better defender and can hit lefties and righties unlike Johnson.

Not that I'd sign him, but if his agent is worth a damn, he'll get much more than Johnson.

Asking and getting are 2 seperate deals.

Bobby Abreu didn't set out to get 1/5 last offseason.

Everything we've heard so far is that teams are looking to slash money.

An astute GM would be able to fill any holes we have quite cost effectively, if they use the proper leverage.

Other GM's will pay stupid money to arbitration Loogys and whine to the media about "Tough breaks" and being on the "Right track".

Grabow is not a loogy. Not really sure what you don't get about that.

He sure as hell ain't Billy Wagner either.

spare part/Middle reliever point remains the same

Would you feel better if Jim Hendry was looking to overpay to keep Mike Remlinger circa 2004?

Hendry's job needs to be the counter point for the player agent. Maybe he is just too nice or too non-confrontational. He needs to work for the Cubs and their best interests. Not strive to be Buddy Buddy with Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa on their ways out of town.

There's a difference between a setup guy and a middle reliever. Name the last team that won it all without competent setup guys. Was Remlinger circa 2004 the same age as Grabow? Did he have the same number of K/9? Didn't he also have reverse splits?

I agree with the 2nd part of your post. Hendry needs to think about how the market is going to play out and correctly offer arbitration to the players who he wants to retain or he has no fear that they won't get signed by someone else. Wood was going to get signed last year - it may have cost Wood some money, but that's not Hendry's concern. The DeRosa bit doesn't make sense.

grabow is still not a loogie. there's your daily update on that.

Hendry has had a chubby for this guy for several years. His career year numbers are echos of another former Texas player that was a free agent last year. Suprisingly, Byrd batted only .244 against lefties. That does not fare well when you project Fukudome in right (.164 avg against lefties in '09), and Soriano in left (.184 average against lefties in '09). Reed Johnson may be considered just for plattoning. On the suprising side, Sam Fuld batted .303 last year in limited AB's against left handers and batted .318 in 107 minor league AB's last year.

but no one would project those numbers versus lefties based off one year though...you're talking a little over 100 PA's maybe, that's like projecting a full season after one month.

Corey Patterson once hit lefties well for a season, you have to use a larger sample size. ESPN.com has 3 year splits which still wouldn't add to a full season, but a little better.

Byrd: 829 OPS vs righty, 798 vs lefty

Soriano: 861 vs 829

Fukudome (2 years): 789 vs 667(less than 200 AB's versus lefties)

 

Agreed, sample size is thin. I would agree that Soriano's avg was due to a complete down year, but I think you would have to agree that Fukudome looks clueless against lefties. So, who becomes your fourth outfielder then if Bradley departs and Byrd enters?

yeah Fukudome looks pretty lost versus lefties for the most part and they probably still want to platoon him, but finding a short side platoon shouldn't be that hard.

Fuld's career minor league splits don't show much of a discrepancy, .743 vs .788, so he's possibility

I wouldn't be against signing Byrd and Johnson for the right prices. Jake Fox might still be around. Jeff Baker has played a ittle outfield in his career, might be an option as well. Anyway, it should be a low priority on the offseason wish list

If it was up to me the bench would look like

Jake Fox corner backup 1b/3b/rf/lf

Sam Fuld 5th outfielder, possible Kfuk platoon mate in CF

Blanco SS/2nd base backup

MLB minimum money catcher

Fontenot/Baker

Had to share this one off of the Mailbag for Muskat:

Trade Roy Halladay for Bradley. Fukudome to right. Tyler Colvin in center. Wishful thinking?
-- Ryan P., Sioux Falls, S.D.

Not wishful, but very unlikely. The Blue Jays won't make that deal.

Someone should inform Ryan to limit his MLB 2k playing time on PS3.

nice response Muskat...

Not wishful, but very unlikely. The Blue Jays won't make that deal. .

in other words, wishful thinking Ryan.

maybe he has a year like Bradley after leaving Texas or maybe he has a few years like DeRosa

I don't particularly like his walk rates myself, so as I said, i'd avoid him.

my guess is Hendry sees the nice RBI totals and numbers with RISP and thinks for some reason that's something to be counted on...

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/soxnet/2009/11/rep...

3-way trade talk of Gonzalez, Konerko and Angels...

get on the phone Hendry and get Lee into that discussion...

I am not claiming I know anything about the White Sox farm system, but you would think that with the Peavy trade and the Teahan trade, the Padres would be picking peanuts and raw players that are many years away from stepping onto a major league field. If this is the case, why wouldn't the Angels just trade straight up for Gonzalez? Kanerko is 34 (defensively challanged to be polite) and owed $12 million, while Gonzalez who just claimed a gold glove, in his prime (not to mention would thrive in the AL especially in Boston and NY during the playoffs) and owed $4.75 million with a club option for $5.5 million in 2011. I think that SD can get a lot more for him and the preliminary talks are just to try and get as many suitors involved to start a bidding war.

From reading the comments on the site, it would probably be Kornerko for Matthews Jr.

He has one year on his contract I believe, and they need a CFer/leadoff hitter. Move Rios to left, Quinton to Rf and AJ to first.

OOOOOHHHHHFesive offense on the Southside.

They do love their small ball. Good luck with that......

I don't know why you say he is "defensively challenged" when he has performed at league average for 13 years. Actually, one point better in FP (.995, to LA of .994). He is not a GG player, but has been a gamer for the most part in his career and somehow played well in the big games down the WS stretch.

For sure the Pads, IF they wish to split up the Gonzalez brothers, can get a lot more than Kanerko in a trade.

The Sox gave up some nice players this past season in Lance Broadway, et. al. I wonder how many more players they are willing to trade again?

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2009/11/repor...

First, the Padres would be seeking four top-notch prospects at pitcher, center field, catcher and second base for a player of Gonzalez's caliber.

so Cashner, someone we don't have since they can't trade Jackson yet, Soto or Castillo and Castro or Watkins...

now if they could move D. Lee for one or two of those parts, you might have something...

a boy can dream...

I'd flip Soto for Gonzalez in a package in heart beat.

Especially after this season with his weight issues.

If he'd cut down on the weed, he'd eat less.

Maybe he's hanging out with Linci too much, too?

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/1397/c...

The funny thing, though? There were 96 openings on the Rookie of the Year ballots: 32 ballots, three spaces per ballot. The best, most valuable rookie in the National League this year was probably Cubs righthander Randy Wells. He took exactly one of those 96 spots, placing second on one ballot.

would be nice if he explained why he thought Wells was the "best, most valuable rookie", although I could certainly see a good case for it.

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  • This offseason, after some ridiculous playoff run and Chapman saving every game from here until the end of the postseason striking out 27/9innings, I welcome anyone to quote this thread and call me a dummy: I hate this trade, and my hate is 2 parts Chapman makes this team less likeable and 1 part that's a ridiculous overpay for 30 regular season innings and, at tops, 10 postseason innings. Already hoping they don't extend him.

    Charlie 1 min 31 sec ago view
  • btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.

    Cubster 23 min 50 sec ago view
  • I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.

    Cubster 24 min 18 sec ago view
  • Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.

    billybucks 33 min 7 sec ago view
  • Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath  of the Chapman trade: 

    SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete  

    EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin 

    There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.  

    And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .  

    Arizona Phil 53 min 17 sec ago view
  • I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.

    Hagsag 1 hour 23 min ago view
  • I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.

    Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).

    chitownmvp01 1 hour 27 min ago view
  • chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 30 min ago view
  • The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.

    McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 50 min ago view
  • There is no Comp pick for players traded mid-season. 2+ months of Chapman is it.

    mbauer 1 hour 53 min ago view
  • to get one of the best you have to give up one/some of your best...but it's a bit painful to watch the system's best prospect walk for any 2-3 month rental, especially one that's not an everyday player.

    crunch 1 hour 55 min ago view
  • I assume Chapman will replace Richard on the roster, but who goes down when Cahill gets activated? Maybe Grimm?

    And when Soler and Coghlan get healthy, how do they fit them on the roster when they're ready to be activated?

    chitownmvp01 1 hour 58 min ago view
  • We are giving up a lot, but it's not like we're trading Addison Russell for 2+ months of Jason Hammel. When impact players become available, they are going to cost you. The other bids could also have been high.

    Having Chapman as a rental is potentially less disruptive than having him come in with an extension in place. 

    CTSteve 2 hours 21 sec ago view
  • Billy McKinney had season-ending knee surgery last August and came to Minor League Camp this year somewhat restricted. (He was used mostly as a DH in Cactus League Minor League Camp games), and I'm not sure he's 100% right now (he's repeating AA, and his XBH numbers are way down, like he's not getting good rotation in his lowev half). That might have been part of the reason why the trade wasn't completed right away.

    Arizona Phil 2 hours 7 min ago view
  • Rashad Crawford was a basketball star in HS (he was known as "Baby Jordan", and baseball was only his second sport) and he has plus-speed and athleticism, so when the Cubs drafted him (Keith Lockhart was the scout)  he was seen as a long-term project.  

    I was at Fitch Park the day that Rashad Crawford became a LH hitter, He waa never a switch-hitter, He went directly from being a RH hitter to a LH hitter, which I had never seen before. 

    Arizona Phil 2 hours 15 min ago view
  • I'm with Rob G and Johann here. It's not about Chapman as a pitcher. I just don't want to have to block out a real problem (the domestic violence) in order to try to enjoy the frivolous ball and stick game.

    Charlie 2 hours 23 min ago view