2009 Playoff Predictions

It's the first time in 2 years that the Cubs won't be influencing my bracket. The last time that happened was in 2006 and I had the A's winning it all and the Tigers and Cardinals losing in the first round. It's always important to remember when reading my entries that I'm an idiot. If you want, MLB is running a bracket challenge that you can enter, or throw your guesses in the comments. I haven't seen a neat and tidy place with official playoff rosters, so the ex-Cub factor below is a guess at this point and it's possible I missed a Cub connection.

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers started off hot for 2 months and then coasted the last 4 months and their best pitcher had a 5.21 ERA in September (Billingsley). That leaves Randy Wolf as their ace, walk-happy Clayton Kershaw, and now Vicente Padilla(chuckle) getting Game 3.  The Cardinals finished below .500 in Sept/Oct after a ridiculous August, but have the most feared hitter in the game, some decent protection around him for once and a solid bullpen. This series reminds me too much of the Cubs vs. Dodgers last year, except the Cards are the Dodgers this time. 

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Cards - 1(Mark DeRosa, Wellemeyer may still make roster, don't think Lohse counts), Dodgers - 1 (Juan Pierre, don't think Garland counts)

Secret Sauce: Dodgers

My Prediction: Cards in 3.

Rockies vs. Phillies

The Rockies were 72-41 since June and have a much better pitching staff than their Coors Field numbers suggest. Ubaldo Jimenez is as good as they get in my opinion, with Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel to follow. Poor Jason Marquis may not even get the Game 4 start, but that's probably best for the Rockies. Rockies were 2nd in the league in home runs and runs scored to the Phillies, so you'd expect some guys crossing the plate early and often, but you never know in 3-5 games what will happen. The Phillies would be wise to shelf Brad Lidge and hand over late innings to Ryan Madson and maybe Brett Myers. Cliff Lee has been beaten up since his first coupe of starts with the Phillies and Cole Hamels seems to be paying for all the innings he threw in their title run last year. I think the Phils will be tough to knock off as defending champs, but the Rockies will prevail. And when in doubt, bet against the ex-Cub factor.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Rockies - 1(Marquis), Phillies - 4 (Paul Bako, Matt Stairs, Miguel Cairo, Scott Eyre)

Secret Sauce: Colorado

My Prediction: Rockies in 5

Red Sox vs. Angels

When the Angels beat the Red Sox in a playoff series, I'll pick them. Until that happens, I'm going with the Red Sox, plus I like their starters and bullpen more.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Red Sox - 1(if Gathright makes postseason roster), Angels - 1 (Gary Matthews Jr.)

Secret Sauce: Boston

My Prediction: Red Sox in 4

Twins vs. Yankees

I could see the Twins taking Game 1 riding the wave of September and last night, but ultimately I can't get behind a team missing Justin Morneau and Kevin Slowey.  The Yanks have easily been the best team in baseball all year, still have Mariano Rivera closing and I think Burnett, Sabathia and Petitte along with a far superior offense than any other team should carry them through the playoffs.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Twins- 2(Brendan Harris, Ron Mahay), Yankees - 3 (Chad Gaudin, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr....Eric Hinske doesn't count I believe)

Secret Sauce: Yankees

My Prediction: Yankees in 3

LCS

Cardinals over Rockies in 6, Yankees over Red Sox in 5

Secret Sauce: Rockies and Yankees

World Series

Yankees over Cardinals in 6

Secret Sauce: Yankees

Comments

Cards in 4
Phils in 5
RSox in 4
Yanks in 3

Cards in 7
RSox in 6

RSox in 6

Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade. Whoever has the better October can probably rightfully claim that title. If both were to bow out in the first round, I'd give the slight edge to Boston for the titles.

NYY vs. BOS payroll

* 2009: $201,449,189 * 2009: $121,745,999
* 2008: $209,081,577 * 2008: $133,390,035
* 2007: $189,639,045 * 2007: $143,026,214
* 2006: $194,663,079 * 2006: $120,099,824
* 2005: $208,306,817 * 2005: $123,505,125
* 2004: $184,193,950 * 2004: $127,298,500
* 2003: $152,749,814 * 2003: $ 99,946,500
* 2002: $125,928,583 * 2002: $108,366,060
* 2001: $112,287,143 * 2001: $110,035,883
* 2000: $107,588,459 * 2000: $ 81,200,000

...and the Cubs...for the hell of it...

* 2009: $134,809,000
* 2008: $118,345,833
* 2007: $ 99,670,332
* 2006: $ 94,424,499
* 2005: $ 87,032,933
* 2004: $ 90,560,000
* 2003: $ 79,868,333
* 2002: $ 75,690,833
* 2001: $ 64,715,833
* 2000: $ 62,100,000

Relevance?

"Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade."

just pointing out that 1 team in particular spends to win even though they both spend a lot...at most of the points through the decade we're talking 50/70-ish million bucks...enough to field an entire separate team at league average at some points. crazy stuff...

the cubs payroll i threw in for the hell of it...a comparison point that's related to something we're more familiar with.

Well, they do have more pennants than anyone else this decade to show for it. (Red Sox and Cardinals have a chance to tie.) Something to be said for that. Cubs spent a lot of money this decade and couldn't even buy one.

National League
Cards vs Dodgers -- Cards in 4
Rockies vs Phillies -- Phillies in 5

Cards vs Phillies -- Cards in 6

American League
Red Sox vs Angels -- Red Sox in 4
Twins vs Yankees -- Yankees in 4

Red Sox vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6

World Series
Cards vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6

Caveat -- Best-of-five series are a crap shoot.

National League
STL v LAD... LAD in 5
COL v PHI... PHI in 4

PHI in 7

American League
BOS v LAA... BOS in 4
MIN v NYY... NYY in 4

BOS in 6

World Series
PHI v BOS... BOS in 7

good start for me, Phils win Game 1...5-1.

Twins who beat the Angels over Cards who beat the Phillies.

I could be wrong.

6-2 in the 5th...

Recent comments

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  • On the other hand, Pries won his first start for Iowa, only giving up two HRs in the process. This trade has got some legs yet!

    Eric S 1 hour 1 min ago view
  • KB now with 0 RBI in his last 10 games and 1 in his last 15, despite having 19 hits in his last 15 games and raising his batting average from .278 to .286 over that span.

    Maybe have Zobrist hit 2 and KB hit 4?

    Also -- no HR in the last 15 games -- time for a bunch. Starting tomorrow.

    billybucks 1 hour 16 min ago view
  • Down a run. Fowler on first. Nobody out. KB singles to left, Fowler makes it to third, perfect throw from Cabrera nails KB trying to stretch for 2nd.

    So, instead of 1st & 3rd and no out, you have 3rd with one out. It was a perfect throw, but why take the chance with 3-4-5 hitters coming up?

    billybucks 1 hour 31 min ago view
  • Must be a Cub thing - our lefties can;t get lefties out.

    billybucks 1 hour 31 min ago view
  • Splitting hairs, but Jake's pitch was poor execution, while KB's play was a poor decision (and the 2nd time he got thrown out trying to stretch in the game). Poor execution happens. Poor decisions are preventable. Speaking of poor decisions -- Baez's steal of 3rd made absolutely no sense.

    billybucks 1 hour 32 min ago view
  • Didn't Jake cost them the game with a pitch to Frazier?

    The E-Man 1 hour 45 min ago view
  • Missed the play w/Bryant. What happened?

    The E-Man 1 hour 46 min ago view
  • Not a good decision by Bryant in the 9th. That may have cost them the game.

    billybucks 1 hour 50 min ago view
  • Can we un-do the Montgomery deal? Please?

    billybucks 1 hour 52 min ago view
  • THAT WAS TURRIBLE.

    crunch 1 hour 54 min ago view
  • Who is this Arrieta guy? Can I get the old one back please?

    The E-Man 3 hours 3 min ago view
  • Well, this is, once again, the whole season for the Sox.

    billybucks 3 hours 7 min ago view
  • ...and the Bryant RBI jinx continues in the 3rd....crap.

    billybucks 4 hours 39 min ago view
  • bryant's in the dugout filling a police report BECAUSE HE JUST GOT ROBBED.

    f'n cabrerra...

    crunch 5 hours 16 min ago view
  • chapman showing up and available tomorrow night.

    i'm sure he'll be a bit hit. hope he doesn't choke. dude has a rifle for an arm. he'll add a bit of punch to the bullpen.

    crunch 5 hours 18 min ago view
  • the 'crosstown classic' sure has lost it's magic with interleague. the excitement level is barely noticable...maybe it's a bit more hype in the city, itself.

    crunch 5 hours 22 min ago view