Easy to Be Harden
Rich Harden just hit five years of MLB service time this past Sunday.
Why is that important?
Because Harden signed his current contract in April 2005 under the old CBA, he retains the arcane right to demand a trade after this season. That's because under the rules of the previous CBA, if a player is signed to a multi-year contract and has accrued at least five years of MLB service time when he is traded to another club, the player has the right to demand a trade during the post-World Series Free-Agency Filing Period that follows the season during which he is traded.
If Harden does choose to exercise his option to demand a trade after the 2008 season, and the Cubs don't trade him by March 15, 2009, he can become a totally unrestricted FA at that time (player option), although by exercising the option to be a FA under the aforementioned circumstances, Harden would be giving up his $7M salary for 2009 and the Cubs wouldn't owe him anything past this season.
However, Harden will likely take this track only if he feels he can get more than $7M on the open market post-2008 (which he almost certainly would) and/or if he feels the Cubs are unlikely to offer him a contract extension post-2009 (still TBD).
So if the Cubs had acquired Harden this past Saturday instead of waiting until yesterday, they would absolutely control the rights to Rich Harden through the 2009 season ($7M salary in 2009), with a nice convenient club option (with no buy-out) following the 2008 season in case Harden blows out his shoulder or elbow before the end of the season.
But by waiting to acquire Harden until after he had accrued five seasons of MLB Service Time, the Cubs gave Harden the leverage to either force the Cubs to trade him post-2008, or else give him the option to be a FA one year earlier than he otherwise would have been eligible (but with no compensation draft picks).
Of course the Cubs could always decline their $7M club option for 2009 before Harden has a chance to demand a trade, making Harden eligible for arbitration post-2008. But the Cubs are unlikely to do that unless they are fairly sure that Harden intends to exercise his right to demand a trade, because there is no way he gets less than $7M in arbitration. But if Harden were to sustain a significant shoulder or elbow injury sometime before the conclusion of the 2008 season, the Cubs probably would opt to decline their 2009 club option and non-tender him on 12/12 (as they did with Mark Prior last year).
As a further ado and a point to begin thinking about roster moves into the All-Star Break and beyond, here is the updated projected post-2008 and Spring Training 2009 roster, contract, and option status for the 39 Cubs players presently on the 40-man roster and the one on the 60-day DL, and the updated lists of Cubs minor leaguers who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December and those who will be eligible to be minor league free-agents after the conclusion of the World Series:
ELIGIBLE TO BE FREE-AGENT AFTER 2008 SEASON:
Henry Blanco (club option with buy-out)
SIGNED FOR 2009:
Henry Blanco - $3M club option or $300K buy-out
Mark DeRosa - $5.5M
Kosuke Fukudome - $11.5M
Rich Harden - $7M club option or else eligible for arbitration, and player option to demand a trade
Derrek Lee - $13M
Ted Lilly - $12M
Jason Marquis - $9.875M
Aramis Ramirez - $15.65M
Jeff Samardzija - $1.3M (no minor league split)
Alfonso Soriano - $16M
Carlos Zambrano - $17.75M
ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY-ARBITRATION POST-2008:
AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION) PLAYERS FOR 2009:
NOTE: 2009 MLB minimum salary will be $400K with a $65K minimum minor league split salary ($32.5K minimum minor league split for players with no MLB ST who are on the 40-man roster for the first time)
PROJECTED MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS - SPRING TRAINING 2009:
NOTE: Only players with less than five years of MLB Service Time projected post-2008 are listed, since players with five or more years of MLB Service Time post-2008 can refuse an optional assignment to the minors
* Player must first clear Optional Assignment Waivers
NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT:
Jose Ascanio (see NOTE)
* Mike Fontenot
* Michael Wuertz
NOTE: Jose Ascanio will have used three minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he will have spent only four “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster through the 2008 season, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option in 2009.
TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
Billy Petrick (see NOTE)
Jeff Samardzija (see NOTE)
* Ryan Theriot
NOTE: Billy Petrick will have used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he will have spent only three “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster through the 2008 season, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons.
Jeff Samardzija will have used two minor league options through the 2008 season, but because he will have spent only two “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster through the 2008 season, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons.
THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
FOUR MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT:
ELIGIBLE TO BE MINOR LEAGUE FA POST-2008:
Andres Blanco, SS
Jim Brower, RHP
Mike Burns, RHP
Hector Carrasco, RHP
Robinson Chirinos, C-IF
Matt Craig, 1B-3B
Jason Dubois, 1B-OF
Doug Deeds, OF-1B
Danny Fatheree, C
Luis Figueroa, INF
Dumas Garcia, RHP
Koyie Hill, C
Josh Kroeger, OF
Leonel Perez, C
Bobby Scales, IF-OF
Andres Torres, OF
Randy Wells, RHP
NOTE: A player eligible to be a Minor League free-agent cannot be a FA if he is added to an MLB 40-man roster by the end of the World Series.
ELIGIBLE FOR DECEMBER 2008 RULE 5 DRAFT:
James Adduci, OF
Alberto Alburquerque, RHP
Mitch Atkins, RHP
Matt Avery, RHP
Justin Berg, RHP
Todd Blackford, RHP
Edward Campusano, LHP
Russ Canzler, 1B
Yusuf Carter, OF
Jeff Culpepper, OF
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Darin Downs, LHP
Jesse Estrada, RHP
Ryan Harvey, OF
Jim Henderson, RHP
Mark Holliman, RHP
Grant Johnson, RHP
Marcos Mateo, RHP
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Casey McGehee, 3B-C
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, INF
Jake Muyco, RHP
Mike Phelps, RHP
Jose Pina, RHP
Mark Reed, C
Greg Reinhard, RHP
Kyle Reynolds, 3B-1B
Tony Richie, C
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
Nate Spears, 2B
Donald Veal, LHP
NOTE: Any minor league free-agent who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft.
btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.
I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.
Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.
Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath of the Chapman trade:
SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete
EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin
There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.
And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .
I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.
I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.
Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).
chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).
The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.
McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.
There is no Comp pick for players traded mid-season. 2+ months of Chapman is it.
to get one of the best you have to give up one/some of your best...but it's a bit painful to watch the system's best prospect walk for any 2-3 month rental, especially one that's not an everyday player.
I assume Chapman will replace Richard on the roster, but who goes down when Cahill gets activated? Maybe Grimm?
And when Soler and Coghlan get healthy, how do they fit them on the roster when they're ready to be activated?
We are giving up a lot, but it's not like we're trading Addison Russell for 2+ months of Jason Hammel. When impact players become available, they are going to cost you. The other bids could also have been high.
Having Chapman as a rental is potentially less disruptive than having him come in with an extension in place.
Billy McKinney had season-ending knee surgery last August and came to Minor League Camp this year somewhat restricted. (He was used mostly as a DH in Cactus League Minor League Camp games), and I'm not sure he's 100% right now (he's repeating AA, and his XBH numbers are way down, like he's not getting good rotation in his lowev half). That might have been part of the reason why the trade wasn't completed right away.
Rashad Crawford was a basketball star in HS (he was known as "Baby Jordan", and baseball was only his second sport) and he has plus-speed and athleticism, so when the Cubs drafted him (Keith Lockhart was the scout) he was seen as a long-term project.
I was at Fitch Park the day that Rashad Crawford became a LH hitter, He waa never a switch-hitter, He went directly from being a RH hitter to a LH hitter, which I had never seen before.
I'm with Rob G and Johann here. It's not about Chapman as a pitcher. I just don't want to have to block out a real problem (the domestic violence) in order to try to enjoy the frivolous ball and stick game.
ROB G & BOB R: You're right. The QO can only be extended if the player spends the entire previous season with one club, so only the Yankees could have offered one to Chapman (if he wasn't traded). If an Article XX-B FA is traded during the season, the new club can't offer a QO. .