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Rosters for the 2008 Arizona Fall League (AFL) were announced yesterday, and six of the seven Cubs prospects who will be playing for the Mesa Solar Sox this fall have been named:

SS Darwin Barney
RHP Justin Berg
OF Tyler Colvin
RHP Rocky Roquet
2B Nate Spears
LHP Donald Veal

Berg and Roquet were assigned to the AFL last year, too, although Roquet had his AFL season cut short after sustaining a sports hernia. Berg was likely assigned to the AFL again to help the Cubs decide whether to add him to their 40-man roster post-2008 (or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft). Berg has a power sinker similar to Jeff Samardzija's, but has had command problems throughout his career. A native of Antigua, WI, the now 24-year old Berg pitched at Triton CC in suburban Chicago before being signed as a "Draft+Follow" by the Yankees in May 2004. He was acquired from the Yankees for Matt Lawton in August 2005.

25-year old Rocky Roquet was signed as a NDFA 5th year senior in May 2006 out of Cal Poly, where he was teammate of Cubs 3B prospect Josh Lansford. Roquet is one of the hardest throwers in the Cubs organization, with a 96-97 MPH fastball and mid-80's slider.

23-year old Donald Veal was the Cubs 2nd round draft pick in 2005 out of Pima CC, and is already a virtual lock to get added to the Cubs 40-man roster post-2008. So he is likely going to the AFL mainly to get more work. Veal has had problems with his mechanics (mainly an inability to repeat his delivery and find a consistent arm slot and release point) throughout his career

Tyler Colvin played briefly in the AFL last year, too, as a member of Team USA (which spent a week playing in the AFL before leaving for the 2007 World Cup in Taiwan). The Cubs #1 draft pick out of Clemson in  2006, the 22-year old Colvin is expected to move up to Iowa in 2009. He will not need to be added to the 40-man roster until after next season.

23-year old Nate Spears is another Cubs AA prospect who is expected to make the jump to AAA next season. Spears was one of the players the Cubs acquired from Baltimore in the Corey Patterson deal in January 2006. Like with Berg, the Cubs probably want to use his performance in the AFL to help determine if Spears should be added to the 40-man roster post-2008. Spears really doesn't have the versatility to play mulitple positions, so if he makes it to the big leagues, it will probably have to be as an everyday second-baseman.  

Darwin Barney was the Cubs 2007 4th round pick out of Oregon State, and made the jump from Boise to Daytona out of Spring Training. While the 22-year old Barney has struggled some with his bat, he is a good defensive shortstop, and will likely be the #1 SS at AA Tennessee next season. .

The Cubs have only assigned three pitchers so far, so they will need to select one more. Each MLB club is required to send four pitchers and three position players to their designated AFL team, and each MLB club also has the option to assign up to three additional position players to its AFL club's "taxi squad." Members of the "taxi squad" are position players who are eligible to play only on Wednesday and Saturday, and when they do play, they temporarily replace another position player on the AFL club's active list.

In addition to the six (eventually seven) Cubs prospects who will play for the Mesa Solar Sox in 2008, Peoria Chiefs manager Ryne Sandberg will serve as the Solar Sox bench coach. (Each of the five MLB clubs associated with a given AFL club contribute either the manager, the bench coach, the pitching coach, or one of the two athletic trainers, and the assignments rotate every year).

As usual, the Cubs are the "host" team of the Mesa Solar Sox, as the Solar Sox play their home games at HoHoKam Park, the Cubs Spring Training stadium. While the Cubs are always one of the five MLB clubs associated with the Solar Sox, the other four clubs associated with the Solar Sox rotate from year to year. This year, the Tigers, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves will be the other four organizations providing players and staff to the Solar Sox. (Last year, the Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Brewers, and Red Sox provided players and staff to the Solar Sox).    

The AFL is rated AA+, and is primarily designed for AA players making the transition to AAA, although it is not unusual for a few AAA players to play in the AFL, too. Each MLB club is allowed to assign a maximum of one player who has not played in AA or AAA(and Darwin Barney is the Cubs player with no AA or AAA experience assigned to the AFL this year).  

The AFL season runs six weeks, and teams play six games a week (they don't play on Sunday). Each AFL team typically has 20 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders, and four outfielders (plus "taxi squad" players) on its roster, and usually six of the pitchers are used as starters (each starter pitching once a week, throwing no more than five innings in any start, usually with a maximum of 30 IP accrued over the course of the AFL season).   

The AFL consists of six teams playing in two three-team divisions. The Mesa Solar Sox, Phoenix Desert Dogs, and Scottsdale Scorpions are in one division, and the Peoria Javelinas, Peoria Saguaros, and Surprise Rafters are in the other one. The two division winners meet in a single championship game the last Saturday of the season. 

Quite a night for the Cubbies, who looked nothing like the team with the best record in baseball, other than the final result. Errors, defensive miscues, bad starting pitching, bad relief pitching and yet they overcame all that thanks to Craig Hansen's pitching and Geovany Soto's hitting. Soto had been on a steady decline since his monstrous April putting up OPS numbers of 1.048, .868, .747, .740 heading in August. But things have turned around for him and he's put up a 1.014 OPS with 20 RBI's matching his April RBI total with five games still to go this month. His seven RBI outburst yesterday tops his 6 RBI game in April versus the Brewers and is the second most RBI's for a Cubs catcher in a game trailing the likes of Barry Foote, George Mitterwald and Ed Bailey (since 1956).

If you happen to be wondering who had the most RBI's in a game for the Cubs since 1956 like I was, the answer is after the jump.

 (Drumroll)....Sammy Sosa had a 9 RBI game in 2002 versus the Rockies thanks to three, three-run home runs.

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SP Jason Marquis
SP *Zach Duke
  8-7, 4.76, 71 K, 52 BB, 134.1 IP

4-12, 5.29, 72 K, 42 BB, 151.1 IP
        LF
Alfonso Soriano RF
*Nyjer Morgan SS Ryan Theriot
SS
Jack Wilson
1B Derrek Lee
CF *Nate McLouth
3B Aramis Ramirez
1B
*Adam LaRoche CF Reed Johnson
LF
*Brandon Moss RF
Mark DeRosa
2B Freddy Sanchez 2B
Ronny Cedeno 3B Andy LaRoche
C
Henry Blanco
C
Raul Chavez
P *Jason Marquis
P *Zach Duke

 

The Cubs go for the sweep, and once again I am reminded that I don't know how to add Rob's broom graphic to the game results box at the top of the right-hand column. I'll make you a deal, Jason Marquis: you win the game, and I'll work on the broom.

As they try for their 13th victory in their last 14 road games and their 14th win in 18 games against the Pirates this season, the Cubs will go with their all-righty starting eight, including Henry Blanco in place of Geovany Soto behind the plate.

I hope Hank got the memo about our catchers being required to contribute at least 7 RBI per game. 

 This Month

Pitcher GS
W-L
IP
H
ERA
AVG. GAME SCORE
Jason Marquis
4
2-1
 23  24 5.09
46
Carlos Zambrano
5
1-1
 26.2  31 7.43 39

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SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ian Snell
13-5, 3.29, 111 K, 57 BB, 164 IP

5-10, 5.60, 108 K, 74 BB, 133.1 IP
        LF
Alfonso Soriano LF
*Nyjer Morgan SS Ryan Theriot
CF *Nate McLouth
1B Derrek Lee
C #Ryan Doumit 3B Aramis Ramirez
1B
*Adam LaRoche CF *Jim Edmonds
RF
*Brandon Moss
2B Mark DeRosa
3B *Doug Mientkiewicz RF *Kosuke Fukudome 2B Freddy Sanchez C Geovany Soto
SS Jack Wilson P #Carlos Zambrano P Ian Snell

 

It's always nice when the league lets the Cubs use a designated hitter. Zambrano's .972 OPS is not only the best for tonight's starters, but would be second only to Milton Bradley among the regular DH's of the game. His hitting prowess has also helped the Cubs put up a .597 OPS out of the number nine spot in the order. That's good for 14th in baseball and better than the A's, Royals and Orioles have been able to manage (thanks to reader "nohit" for the tip). 

 The quest to the playoffs continues...

I started a thread regarding the Sun-Times article this morning stating that many of the Cubs September call-ups may be delayed as the Iowa Cubs clinched the playoffs. The I-Cubs will host the Oklahoma RedHawks (Texas Rangers AAA affiliate) starting Sept 3rd in a best of 5 game series. The debate over what value the AAA playoffs bring vs getting a September reward as a call-up for a contending team doesn't get my debating shoes polished but it's interesting to see how the Cubs brass is going to handle this issue.

From the Gordon Wittenmyer notes:

The Class AAA Iowa Cubs are back in the playoffs for the first time in four years, and one small ramification at the big-league level is that a few anticipated September roster additions might stay with Iowa through its playoff series.

The exceptions: Pitchers Jon Lieber (foot) and Angel Guzman (elbow) are expected to be activated from the DL when rosters expand, and lefty hitter Micah Hoffpauir, who's having a monster season, is expected to join the big club right away.

I suppose getting Lieber is an upgrade on last year where Hendry dropped AAA talent on the Orioles for a near worthless Steve Traschel. Angel Guzman just might be another solid compliment in our bullpen. Micah Hoffpauir, well there is a big fan club out there rooting for some September Hoff-Power.

The biggest addition might not get up here until after the AAA playoffs. This is when Koyie Hill gets the call-up to add 5 mph to the pitching staff's fastballs. That's "Serious" music to my ears.

 

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SP *Ted Lilly
SP Jeff Karstens
  12-7, 4.25, 148 K, 56 W, 161 IP 

2-2, 2.25, 11 K, 8 W, 28 IP
        LF
Alfonso Soriano CF
*Nate McLouth SS Ryan Theriot
2B Freddy Sanchez 1B Derrek Lee
C  #Ryan Doumit 3B Aramis Ramirez
1B
*Adam LaRoche CF *Jim Edmonds
RF
 Jason Michaels 2B Mark DeRosa
LF *Brandon Moss RF *Kosuke Fukudome 3B Andy LaRoche C Geovany Soto
SS Jack Wilson P *Ted Lilly
P Jeff Karstens

 

The Cubs open a three-game set at PNC Park, concluding their 9-game stretch against the Reds, Nationals, and Pirates before they resume play against Major League opposition. (Yes, I'm tempting fate: Friday's smug game preview was just a preamble to an ugly 13-5 loss to the Nats, but 30 games over .500, I'm feeling smug all over again.)

Coming off a tough luck defeat in which he held the Reds hitless for the first 5 innings and wound up yielding just 2 hits in 7 IP, Lily has reduced his ERA to a season-low 4.25.The lefty has given the Cubs Quality Starts in 8 of his last 10 turns, and that defeat to Cincinnati was his first after five consecutive W's.

This will mark Lilly's fourth start of the year against the Bucs. He's 1-0, 5.63 in the three previous starts, with a butt-ugly 8.38 ERA in his two outings at PNC.

Karstens, who landed in Pittsburgh as part of the deal that sent Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yanks, makes his fifth start as a Pirate. In his first, back on 8/1, he blanked the Cubs over six innings. His second time out, he was even better, carrying a perfect game into the eighth inning at Arizona, before eventually closing out a 2-0 complete game win. His last two starts have been much more ordinary—16 hits and 7 ER in 13 IP—and more like what you'd expect from a guy who has fanned just 11 men (and walked 8) in 28 innings.

The Cubs have won 11 of the 15 meetings between the two clubs this year, including 4 of the 6 played in Pittsburgh. 

Lastly, on Sunday, Mark DeRosa became the first Cub since Fred McGriff (2001) to homer in four consecutive games. If DeRo connects tonight, he'll join Sosa ('98) and Sandberg ('89) as the only Cubs since 1956 to go long in five straight.

 

  Sandberg (1989)
Sosa (1998)
McGriff (2001)
DeRosa (2008)
Patsy #1  
Andy McGaffigan 
Livan Hernandez
Jim Brower Josh Fogg Patsy #2
Dennis Martinez Jim Parque
Wil. Rodriguez
John Lannan
Patsy #3
Bryn Smith
Carlos Castillo
Shane Reynolds    
Garrett Mock
Patsy #4
O'Neal/Mulholland*   
James Baldwin      
Tim Redding
Jay Bergmann       
Patsy #5
Larry McWilliams
LaTroy Hawkins
—
 ???

*Sandberg homered twice against the Phillies on 8/10/89 and eventually wound up with 6 HR in 5 games. What a stud.

 

Years before most of the English-speaking world was convinced it could do a passable Harry Caray impression, Jim Volkman was a regular on Chicago radio and had established himself as the master Harry mimic.

Well, Harry (Jim) is back now, at 1908worldchampions.com, where he recently started a game-by-game commentary on the Cubs season, with assistance from two other great voices from the Cubs past, who, like Caray, happen to be dead: Jack Brickhouse and Lou Boudreau.

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SP Jason Bergmann
SP Rich Harden
  2-9, 4.50, 83 K, 33 BB, 116 IP
(NL)
3-1, 1.50, 59 K, 14 BB, 42 IP
        LF
*Willie Harris LF
Alfonso Soriano SS #Christian Guzman
SS Ryan Theriot 3B
Ryan Zimmerman
3B
Aramis Ramirez CF
Lastings Milledge
1B
*Daryle Ward
1B Ronnie Belliard
RF
Mark DeRosa
C Jesus Flores
CF
*Jim Edmonds RF Austin Kearns
C Geovany Soto
2B #Anderson Hernandez
2B
*Mike Fontenot
P Jason Bergmann
P *Rich Harden The Cubs go for yet another series win with Rich Harden making his eight start as a Cub. The win would give them their seventh straight series win and secure a tie  in the season series against the Nationals. Good thing it's Sunday where the Cubs are 15-5 this season, their best record for any day of the week.

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SP *Odalis Perez
SP Ryan Dempster

5-9, 4.06, 83 K, 44 BB, 124 IP

14-5, 2.92, 149 K, 64 BB, 163.1 IP




2B
#Emilio Bonificio LF
Alfonso Soriano LF *Willie Harris SS Ryan Theriot 3B
Ryan Zimmerman
1B
Derrek Lee CF
Lastings Milledge
3B
Aramis Ramirez 1B Ronnie Belliard
CF
Reed Johnson
C Jesus Flores
2B
Mark DeRosa RF Austin Kearns
C Geovany Soto
SS #Anderson Hernandez
RF
*Kosuke Fukudome P *Odalis Perez
P Ryan Dempster

Let us never speak of yesterday's game ever again. And damn, this game is early. And what's with all that pounding going outside my window? And why is everyone screaming? Anyone have any aspirin? 

(buries head under his pillow)

A rough but fun night for yours truly and the Angelfan wife drowning out yesterday's losses celebrating her birthday. It's gonna be another rough night if we lose again today.

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SP *John Lannan
SP Jason Marquis
  6-12, 3.81, 89 K, 54 W, 141.2 IP

8-7, 4.67, 68 K, 49 W, 129 IP
        2B
#Emilio Bonificio LF
Alfonso Soriano SS #Cristian Guzman
SS Ryan Theriot 3B
Ryan Zimmerman
1B
Derrek Lee CF
Lastings Milledge
3B
Aramis Ramirez 1B Ronnie Belliard
CF
Reed Johnson
RF *Ryan Langerhans
C
Geovany Soto
LF *Willie Harris
RF Mark DeRosa
C Wil Nieves
2B
Ronny Cedeno
P *John Lannan
P *Jason Marquis

Weather note: As of 12:40, it's pouring in the western suburbs, with storms on their way to the city. Could be a rain delay in our future.

The Cubs advance to the next course in the all-meatball buffet, following their series against the Reds with three against the 45-83 Nationals starting today, before moving on to Pittsburgh.

The Nats flew to Chicago following a Thursday night game in Philadelphia, so on top of being awful, they're surely tired. However, as the cliche goes, the most dangerous animal is a desperate one, so maybe the Cubs should beware. That said, Nick Zaccardi (Carrie Muskat's new nom de plume?) assures us the Cubs aren't taking anything for granted this weekend, so forget what I said about being beware—the Cubs should hammer these guys.

The home team is a perfect 7-0, averaging nearly 8 runs per game, in their last 7 games against southpaw starters. Lannan, however, dominated the Cubs (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER) in a game Washington won when the teams met in D.C. in late April. Marquis hasn't pitched in nine days, last opening the DH at Atlanta with a winning, 5.1 IP, 2 ER effort against the Braves.

The Cubs begin play with a 5 1/2-game lead over the Brewers.

Finally, one more derogatory note about the Nationals, per the Tribune: with Cristian Guzman recovering from an injury to his left thumb, Washington has started seven different shortstops in the last 22 days.

Focus. We need to focus.

 

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SP Josh Fogg
SP Carlos Zambrano
  2-5, 7.71, 38 K, 24 BB, 65.1 IP

12-5, 3.38, 107 K, 53 BB, 157 IP
        LF
*Chris Dickerson LF
Alfonso Soriano SS Jeff Keppinger
SS Ryan Theriot RF
*Jay Bruce 1B
Derrek Lee 2B Brandon Phillips 3B
Aramis Ramirez 1B *Joey Votto CF
*Jim Edmonds 3B Edwin Encarnacion
2B Mark DeRosa
CF *Corey Patterson
RF *Kosuke Fukudome C *Paul Bako
C Henry Blanco
P Josh Fogg
P #Carlos Zambrano

 

The Cubs try to take two of three from a team so bad, they have given more than 250 at-bats to a player hitting less than .200, are granting a 12th start to a pitcher with a 7.71 ERA (ERA+ of 58), and sent an apology letter to their fans...with 35 games still left in the campaign.

Carlos Zambrano goes for his fifth consecutive win against the Reds, hoping to bounce back to #1 form after three unimpressive outings.

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SP Bronson Arroyo
SP *Ted Lilly 10-10, 5.51, 125 K, 50 BB, 143.2 IP

12-6, 4.32, 141 K, 54 BB, 154 IP
        CF
*Chris Dickerson LF
Alfonso Soriano SS Jeff Keppinger
SS Ryan Theriot RF
*Jay Bruce 1B
Derrek Lee 2B Brandon Phillips 3B
Aramis Ramirez 3B Edwin Encarnacion
CF
*Jim Edmonds 1B *Joey Votto 2B Mark DeRosa
LF Jolbert Cabrera RF *Kosuke Fukudome C Ryan Hanigan C Geovany Soto P Bonson Arroyo P *Ted Lilly

The Astros did us no favors this afternoon losing to the Brewers so it'll be up to Ted Lilly and the Cubs to bring themselves closer to a division and playoff spot. The Cubs current six game lead in the division is its largest division lead since June 22nd, 2001, when they led the Cardinals by that much. Things should hopefully go a little smoother the rest of this season. 

A quick look at how the rotation might shake out the rest of the season.

August 20th vs. Reds - Ted Lilly 
August 21st vs. Reds - Carlos Zambrano
August 22nd vs. Nationals - Jason Marquis
August 23rd vs. Nationals - Ryan Dempster
August 24th vs. Nationals - Rich Harden
August 25th @ Pirates - Ted Lilly
August 26th @ Pirates - Carlos Zambrano
August 27th @ Pirates - Jason Marquis
August 28th vs. Phillies - Ryan Dempster
August 29th vs. Phillies - Rich Harden
August 30th vs. Phillies - Ted Lilly
August 31st vs. Phillies - Carlos Zambrano
Septemeber 1st vs. Astros - Jason Marquis
September 2nd vs. Astros - Ryan Dempster
September 3rd vs. Astros - Rich Harden
September 4th - Off Day
September 5th @ Reds - Ted Lilly
September 6th @ Reds - Carlos Zambrano
September 7th @ Reds - Jason Marquis
September 8th - Off Day
September 9th @ Cardinals- Ryan Dempster
September 10th @ Cardinals- Rich Harden
September 11th @ Cardinals- Ted Lilly
September 12th @ Astros- Carlos Zambrano
September 13th @ Astros- Jason Marquis
September 14th @ Astros- Ryan Dempster
September 15th - Off Day
September 16th vs. Brewers - Rich Harden
September 17th vs. Brewers - Ted Lilly
September 18th vs. Brewers- Carlos Zambrano
September 19th vs. Cardinals - Jason Marquis
September 20th vs. Cardinals - Ryan Dempster
September 21th vs. Cardinals - Rich Harden
September 22nd @ Mets - Ted Lilly
September 23rd @ Mets - Carlos Zambrano
September 24th @ Mets - Jason Marquis
September 25th @ Mets - Ryan Dempster
September 26th @ Brewers - Rich Harden
September 27th @ Brewers - Ted Lilly
September 28th @ Brewers - Carlos Zambrano

That is of course assuming no rainouts or injuries or Lou shuffling the rotation. He can always throw Sean Marshall a spot start in there to move things around. You have to admit it does work out quite nicely for us if the last series ends up meaning anything. Even the series at home versus the Brewers gets us two of our big three and they'd miss Marquis. If it does shake down just like that, it means eight more starts for Lilly and Zambrano and seven more for the rest. Their games started totals if that happens:

Lilly -34
Dempster - 33
Zambrano - 32
Marquis - 29
Harden - 14 (as a Cub), 27 total

The Cubs magic number is 28 for a playoff spot and 31 for the division. 

EDIT: Messed up the Mets and Brewers series at the end there and thought it was a 4-game set versus the Brewers, as opposed to a 4-game set versus the Mets. It should be fixed now and it would set up the Cubs to have Harden, Lilly and Zambrano against the Brewers in both series in September. 

Rich Harden's brilliant effort Tuesday night followed yet another complete-game win for the second-place Brewers' C.C. Sabathia the evening before.

Through last night's play, here is what Harden and Sabathia have done for their NL Central teams, alongside the contribution of another mid-season acquisition, who, once upon a time, made a huge impact when he joined the Cubs from the American League:

  GS CG IP
H
K
 BB ERA
 W L C.C. Sabathia
9
5 73
60
69
15
1.60
8
0
Rich Harden
7 0
42
26
59
14 1.50 3
1
Rick Sutcliffe (thru 8/19/84)
13 1
94
87
93
32
3.26 11
1

 

(Note: Sabathia's first start for the Brewers was on July 8, Harden's Cub debut was on July 12, and Sutcliffe's first game for the Cubs was on June 19, 1984.

Thoughts after the jump...

Sabathia has been brilliant for the Brewers, with only one rocky start in the mix, a 124-pitch, 6IP+ game against the Cubs. The question that has arisen around the former Indian is whether Ned Yost is going to pitch him to death in the course of chasing a post-season berth and getting all he can out of the team's prize pick-up in what is likely to be his only season pitching for the Brewers. In fact, Yost had to explain himself after he allowed Sabathia to throw a career-high 130 pitches in Monday night's 9-3 win against the Astros. (Sabathia's 5 complete games as a Milwaukeean are more than every other National League team has thrown so far this year.)

Piniella is aware at all times of Harden's fragility and is managing him accordingly. We know he is aware of this at all times, because he mentions it constantly. As the skipper said after Tuesday night's game, "We've just got to watch him, keep him fresh, keep him strong."

Lastly about Sutcliffe, the big righty finished 16-1, 2.69, and was integral to the Cubs' '84 NL East title. His coronation as NL Cy Young Award winner, however, was arugably a mistake by the Baseball Writers. Dwight Gooden, who went 17-9 in what was his rookie year, fanned 276 men (against 73 walks) in just 218 IP. Gooden's Mets finished 90-72, 6.5 games behind the division-winning Cubs.  

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SP Johnny Cueto
SP Rich Harden 8-11, 4.90, 136 K, 53 BB, 145 IP
(NL) 2-1, 1.80, 49 K, 14 BB, 35 IP
LF
*Chris Dickerson LF
Alfonso Soriano SS Jeff Keppinger
SS Ryan Theriot RF
*Jay Bruce 1B
Derrek Lee 2B Brandon Phillips 3B
Aramis Ramirez 1B *Joey Votto CF
*Jim Edmonds 3B Edwin Encarnacion C Geovany Soto
CF *Corey Patterson RF *Kosuke Fukudome C *Paul Bako 2B Mark DeRosa  P Johnny Cueto P *Rich Harden

 That sure seemed like the longest one day break from baseball for some reason. Back to the Friendly Confines, where the Cubs have already surpassed their 44-win total from last year with a 45-17 record. The Reds limp into town, depleted and desperate enough to start Corey Patterson. And in honor of Dusty's return, let's discuss the Cubs leading the majors in walks with 501 and on pace for 655 which would break the club mark of 650 set in 1970. Of course, those walks don't mean much if you're not driving them in. The Cubs compliment those walks with an NL leading .284 batting average and .834 OPS with runners in scoring position. That's base-clogging done right.

August 31st is an important date for contending MLB teams, because that’s the date that determines eligibility for post-season rosters.

To be eligible to play in the MLB post-season, a player must be on the club’s 25-man roster or 15-day or 60-day DL as of 8/31. However, any player (regardless of position) who is a member of the organization on 8/31 is eligible to replace an injured player on the post-season roster as long as the injured player is placed on the DL prior to the start of the post-season series. (If the “replacement player” is not already on his club’s 40-man roster, he must be added to the 40 before he can be added to the post-season roster). NOTE: If a player suffers a disabling injury DURING a post-season series, the club can (with approval of the MLB Commissioner) replace the player with any player who was a member of the organization on August 31st, although in this case (replacing an injured player DURING a post-season series), the replacement player must play the same position as the injured player, and the injured player is ineligible to return to the active list at any later point in the post-season.

Essentially, the more players a club can stash on its 15-day or 60-day DL on August 31st, the more post-season roster exemptions for the club. And more post-season roster exemptions gives a club greater flexibility to tweak its post-season roster from series-to-series.

Using post-season roster exemptions, a club can alter its LDS, LCS, and World Series rosters at the start of each series, adding players who were not on the 25-man roster or DL on 8/31. And since projected match-ups are one of the prime influences in determining how a post-season roster is to be constructed, the ability to add an extra lefty reliever in a series where the opposition has a left-handed heavy batting order, or an extra lefty bat off the bench when the opposition has a right-handed heavy bullpen, could give a club an edge. And in a short series involving two quality MLB teams, any little bit of an edge could make the difference between moving on to the next level and going home.

But to add a player or players to a post-season roster, a club needs post-season roster exemptions, and the only way to ensure having the exemptions when they are needed is to have a couple or three players riding the 15-day or 60-day DL on August 31st.

So how did the Cubs go about creating their post-season roster last season?

2007 CUBS 25-MAN ROSTER AS OF 8-31-07:

PITCHERS (11): Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre, Rich Hill, Bob Howry, Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood, Michael Wuertz, and Carlos Zambrano

CATCHERS (2): Henry Blanco and Jason Kendall

INFIELDERS (6): Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, and Daryle Ward

OUTFIELDERS (6): Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones, Craig Monroe, Matt Murton, Felix Pie, and Alfonso Soriano

DISABLED LIST (4): Pitchers Angel Guzman (sprained elbow ligament), Roberto Novoa (fractured shoulder) and Mark Prior (shoulder surgery) on the 60-day DL, and outfielder Angel Pagan (colitis) on the 15-day DL

 

Because Guzman, Novoa, Prior, and Pagan were on the DL on 8/31, all four were eligible to be included on the Cubs 2007 post-season roster.

Note that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers for four days (8/28 through 8/31), as LHP Carmen Pignatiello was optioned to Iowa on August 28th when OF Alfonso Soriano (strained quad) was activated from the DL. But then RHP Sean Gallagher and LHP Will Ohman were recalled from Iowa on September 1st, and RHP Steve Trachsel (acquired from the Baltimore Orioles on 8/31) was also added to the Cubs active roster on 9/1, giving the Cubs 14 pitchers right at the beginning of September (increased to 16 pitchers when Pignatiello and Kevin Hart were brought up on 9/4).

Trachsel was acquired from the Orioles on 8/31 but was not added to the Cubs active roster until the next day, so he was not automatically eligible for the post-season roster. However, he was eligible to be a post-season “replacement player” because he was a member of the Cubs organization on 8/31.

During September 2007, the Cubs recalled pitchers Sean Gallagher, Will Ohman, and Carmen Pignatiello, catcher Geovany Soto, infielder Ronny Cedeno, and IF-OF Eric Patterson from AAA Iowa (Patterson was subsequently optioned to AA Tennessee for disciplinary reasons), and selected RHP Kevin Hart and OF Sam Fuld from AA Tennessee, as Hendry & Piniella opted to go with a 34-man roster over the last month of the season. (Neal Cotts, Jake Fox, Juan Mateo, Billy Petrick, and Jeff Samardzija were not recalled from their minor league optional assignments).

Because Guzman, Novoa, Prior, and Pagan remained on the DL through the balance of the 2007 season, their roster slots became available as post-season roster exemptions, allowing the Cubs to add Kevin Hart, Geovany Soto, and Ronny Cedeno to their NLDS roster. (Hart, Soto, and Cedeno were brought up from the minors in September, so they would not have been eligible to be included on a post-season roster if not for the roster exemptions).

But adding Hart, Soto, and Cedeno to their NLDS roster meant the Cubs had to "deactivate" three players who had been on their 25-man roster on 8/31, and so they dropped pitcher Sean Marshall, catcher Henry Blanco, and outfielder Craig Monroe. (Marshall stayed "stretched-out" as a starter during the NLDS, throwing 70+ pitches for the Cubs AZ Instructional League team in a “Camp Day" intrasquad game at Fitch Park while the Cubs were in Phoenix to play the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, and Monroe kept active by taking early-morning BP every day that week at Fitch).

Marshall, Blanco, and Monroe, plus Will Ohman (who also threw an inning in the Camp Day intrasquad game at Fitch while the Cubs were in Phoenix) and Sam Fuld, remained with the Cubs throughout the NLDS (Trachsel, Pignatiello, and Gallagher did not), serving as potential “replacement players” in case of a season-ending injury to somebody during the NLDS, and as potential Plan “B” options in the NLCS and World Series (if the Cubs had gotten that far). For instance, Marshall could have been an alternative to Marquis as the #4 starter in an NLCS, or Hart could have been exchanged for Ohman, or Fuld could have replaced Pie or Murrton, or Murton or Pie could have been switched with Monroe. 

So knowing what the Cubs did with their September call-ups and post-season roster last year, what are Hendry & Piniella likely to do this year?

If Hendry & Piniella once again go with a 34-man September roster, I would think pitchers Angel Guzman and Jon Lieber will be reactivated from the DL, catcher Koyie Hill will be brought up from Iowa to be the 3rd catcher (the Cubs always add a 3rd catcher in September) and post-season fall-back in case Soto or Blanco were to suffer a disabling injury, and pitchers Michael Wuertz and Kevin Hart, 1B-OF Micah Hoffpauir, and outfielder Felix Pie will be recalled from Iowa. That leaves two spots for a right-handed power bat off the bench (probably either 1B-OF Jason Dubois or OF Jake Fox) and another bullpen arm (probably either Jose Ascanio or Randy Wells). K. Hill, Dubois, and Wells would have to be added to the 40-man roster. (At present there are 38 players on the Cubs 40-man roster, but if Angel Guzman is reactivated from the 60-day DL in September, he would take on of the two open slots).

At present, the Cubs have three players on the DL, with pitchers Chad Fox (sore elbow) and Jon Lieber (sore foot) on the 15-day DL, and pitcher Angel Guzman (TJS surgery rehab) on the 60. Guzman and Lieber will likely be activated from the DL in September, so probably only Chad Fox will provide the Cubs with a ready-made roster exemption for the post-season. (Fox could be transferred to the 60-day DL if an additional spot on the 40-man roster is needed in September).

Of course Lieber has the type of chronic foot problem that probably would allow the Cubs to place him on the DL any old time, so if the Cubs wish to replace a struggling and ineffective Bob Howry with Michael Wuertz and 5th starter Jason Marquis with Micah Hoffpauir, they should be able to do it just by leaving Chad Fox on the DL for the rest of the season and by placing Jon Lieber back on the DL before the start of the NLDS (since Lieber is unlikely to be on the Cubs post-season roster).

Also, LHP Rich Hill (on the Iowa DL with a back problem) and RHP Adam Harben (on the Daytona DL while on extended rehab from 2006 TJS) are both on the Cubs 40-man roster, so either (or both) could be recalled from his optional assignment on August 31st and then be immediately placed on the 60-day DL, giving the Cubs another post-season roster exemption (or two), as well as opening up one (or two) more slots on the 40 in September. (While Harben could get outrighted to the minors at any time, he would have greater value spending the rest of the season on the 60-day DL as a post-season roster exemption than he would by getting outrighted right away).

LHP Carmen Pignatiello and RHP Billy Petrick could also get outrighted if additional slots are needed on the 40-man roster in September, but it’s more likely that they will be removed from the 40 after the season.

 

The Cubs get to enjoy their off-day with a nice come from behind win yesterday and a 5-1 road trip that puts them on the right side of the .500 mark away from Wrigley. They'll play 16 straight starting tomorrow, 13 of those coming at home and the three road games at Pittsburgh. It seems like a great time to increase their lead in the Central, but the Brewers have a pretty easy go of it as well. The schedules through September 4th (three game series unless otherwise noted):

Cubs (16 with 13 at Home): vs. Reds, vs. Nats, @ Pirates, vs Phillies (for 4 games), vs Astros
Brewers (14 with 9 at Home): vs. Astros, vs. Pirates,  @ St. Louis (2 games), @ Pitt, vs. Mets
Cardinals  (13 with 7 at Home): vs. Pirates(2 games), vs Braves, vs. Brewers (2 games), @ Astros, @ Diamondbacks

So that's looking forward, but what about taking a look back at the 2008 season. Peter Gammons on Friday brought up Geovany Soto's name as an National League MVP candidate and it got me thinking about who is the Cubs 2008 MVP.

Your candidates after the jump... 

Geovany Soto - 2nd among NL catchers in OPS and Win Shares behind Brian McCann...gets mad props from his pitchers for his defense and handling of the staff..4th in the NL in CS%(.293).  Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, I did a search for catchers 25 or younger with an OPS+ of 115 or greater with at least 450 PA's.  Soto's current 122 OPS+ ranks in there with the likes of Ted Simmons, Thurman Munson and Gary Carter.

Mark DeRosa -  Leads the team in runs scored (79) and is third in OBP among those who qualify. Among the regulars, he leads the team in batting average with runners in scoring position as well. Hs defensive versatility should not be overlooked.

Aramis Ramirez - Among the Cubs hitters that qualify, he leads them in OPS(.895) and Slugging Percentage(.508). He also leads the team in RBI's, doubles and Runs Created. 2nd on the team in Win Shares.

Alfonso Soriano - For a guy who missed a chunk of time, he still leads the team in home runs with 22. If he qualified, he'd be second on the team in OPS with .901 behind someone else that doesn't qualify - Jim Edmonds. The team is 49-20 when he has played.

Jim Edmonds - Mea culpa. Would lead the team in OPS (.969) and SLG(.594) if he had enough plate appearances. I don't care to talk about his continued showboating on defense.

Ryan Theriot - Leads the team in batting average(.316) ,OBP(.396) and steals (18)...also in caught stealing with 13.

Carlos Zambrano - Leads the team with 17 Win Shares. Has a .929 OPS and has hit .433 with runners on and .478 with runners in scoring position. He pitches too. 12-5 with a 3.38 ERA and second in VORP (38.3) to Ryan Dempster.

Ryan Dempster - Leads the team in ERA(2.92), wins(14), innings pitched (163.1), strikeouts (149) and - holy shit - WHIP(1.16). 

A lot of deserving candidates, but let's turn to one more number to try and help their cases.

A quick look at the WARP-1 totals from Baseball Prospectus of our regulars and top two pitchers. WARP-1 (Wins Above Replacement Player) tries to factor in defense and position scarcity.

Player WARP-1  DeRosa  6.0  Dempster 5.8  Soto  5.7  Zambrano  5.5  Ramirez  5.4  Lee  4.5  Soriano 4.0  Theriot  3.8  Fukudome  3.7  Edmonds  2.9 

Well, who would have thunk that Mark DeRosa would lead the team? And I have to admit that at first I didn't even include him in the short list. I'm not exactly sure how he's doing that, but his ratings by BP defensive numbers are all well above average for all the positions he's played. Where 100 is average, DeRosa is 112 at 2b, 110 at LF, 127 at RF and 110 at 3b. And while hitting with runners in scoring position is not necessarily a skill that can be repeated - it's something that usually migrates around the players normal hitting levels - it is an extremely important stat when evaluating a season or a team's success. And players certainly can have career years in that area. DeRosa's hitting .333 with runners in scoring position with a .927 OPS as I mentioned.  Although that pales to Soriano's 1.041 OPS with RISP, and trails Ramirez at .972 and Edmonds at .937, it's good enough to put him tied for second in RBI's on the team and he has the advantage of playing most of his games at second base, where it's still harder to find a bat. If you look at the league averages for players at each position, second base in the NL has the third lowest OPS (.741) to catcher (.717) and shortstop (.725). Of course, that's a pretty good argument for Geovany Soto being the Cubs MVP, now isn't it?

Before I looked at the WARP-1 numbers, I would have chosen Soto just ahead of Soriano and that's based mostly on playing time. I think Soriano's impact when he's been in the lineup has been tremendous. That not only shows in the team's 49-20 record when he plays, but in his own individual numbers where he is raking the ball this season. We'll see how the season bears out, but it'll be interesting debate as the season draws to its conclusion.

Unfortunately you have to register to vote and you have to vote to see the results. Just a bug in this software.

Game Chat | Press Pass | BR Preview

SP Ryan Dempster
SP
Chris Volstad

13-5, 2.92, 139 K, 62 BB, 157.1 IP

4-2, 3.03, 26 K, 18 BB, 38.2 IP         LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Hanley Ramirez SS Ryan Theriot
LF *Luis Gonzalez
1B
Derrek Lee
3B Jorge Cantu 3B Aramis Ramirez 1B *Mike Jacobs RF
*Kosuke Fukudome 2B Dan Uggla C
Geovany Soto RF *Jeremy Hermida 2B *Mike Fontenot CF
Cody Ross
CF Reed Johnson
C *John Baker P
Ryan Dempster
P Chris Volstad

 

The Cubs end the brief road trip with a chance to win yet another series and take the season matchup with the Fish, which currently stands at three victories each.

Ryan Dempster, who is profiled by Alan Schwarz in Sunday's New York Times, goes up against 21-year-old Chris Volstad, who pitched well in an ND when the Marlins were in Chicago.

Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee return to the starting lineup.

Game Chat | Press Pass | BR Preview

SP *Sean Marshall
SP
Anibal Sanchez

2-2, 3.55, 33 K, 10 BB, 38 IP

1-2, 4.08, 14 K, 7 BB, 17.2 IP         LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Hanley Ramirez SS Ryan Theriot
CF Cody Ross CF
*Jim Edmonds 3B Jorge Cantu 1B *Daryle Ward
1B *Mike Jacobs 2B *Mike Fontenot 2B Dan Uggla RF *Kosuke Fukudome LF Josh Willingham 3B Mark DeRosa
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Henry Blanco
C Matt Treanor P
*Sean Marshall
P Anibal Sanchez Sean Marshall gets the start because of the doubleheader on Wednesday and he'll be on a limit of 80 pitches. If that doesn't get the Cubs to at least the 6th, expect to see Jason Marquis out there for an inning or two. Lou, obviously bored with winning with his normal lineup, lets the scrubs try to extend the Cubs five game win streak and nine game road win streak.