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Ex-Cub Factor
The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.
Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the 1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in his article.
In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview. In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???
You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.
2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:
Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None
As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers. Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed. Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of last year's heartbreak.
I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years, and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.
Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.
2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.
Recent comments
Childersb3 (view)
Things I've been wrong about:
-Tauchman is fine as a 4th OF. I knew that. I just want a better LH DH option and he was really the DH for us until Seiya got hurt. I'm glad Mervis is getting a chance at it. Caissie is coming for that job for sure. But Tauchman continues to be highly useful as a 4th OF with Seiya being hurt
-I wanted Yency to go to get guys at Iowa a chance. Guys like Palencia and Sanders or RileyT. Maybe even Hodge! But Yency has been better the last two plus weeks. He did hit 96 the other day. He was 93 in Texas to open the season.
-Leiter has his split working enough. It just needs to stay there
-I was surprised Jed picked Wisdom over Cooper. I wonder if this happens if Seiya wasn't hurt. Wisdom has more power. Cooper is the better hitter. Jed picked Wisdom and Wisdom had an option left as well.
-Palencia just doesn't miss enough bats. Similar to ManRod, just two yrs younger. ManRod is killing AAA for TB right now!
Things I got right so far:
-Hendricks. Sorry Kyle. You got paid though!
Jed, you missed there.
-Smyly. If Jed could've traded him before or during ST, then he should have and saved some cash.
-Mastro. Not a LH DH. Pinch runner. Defensive utility. Maybe he's better than Madrigal but didn't get a legit chance to prove it.
-Luke Little is good. He's had one bad outing. That's it. Needs to get better entering with guys on base. But he needs to stay in MLB.
-Oh yeah....Morel is doing fine at 3B! He'll get better as well!!
crunch (view)
bellinger "right rib contusion"
Childersb3 (view)
South Bend just lost the lead in the bottom of the 9th on the weirdest scenario, ever.
It's absolutely pouring rain....men on 1st and 2nd, 1out....JPatterson asks for a new ball, but no time out was called....he throws the old ball toward the dugout (not sure if it rolled out of play).....the ump declares the runners get two bases each so one run scores. Then a single up the middle ties the game.
The rain was coming down in buckets at this point.
Just weird
crunch (view)
...and bellinger is gone in the 7th because of that 2nd blown chance and the wall he bounced off of...
hopefully his rib cage/shoulder feels better tomorrow, we just got happ back.
Childersb3 (view)
Phil,
Any thoughts on Y. Rojas' stuff and Y. Melendez's game (I believe I've asked about him before, sorry)?
crunch (view)
wow, things are moving fast. hopefully it continues.
crunch (view)
morel with 4 clean plays in 4 innings...showed off his 100000000mph arm a couple times.
cody bellinger not having a good 4th, though...5 run leads are handy when your CF is making your pitcher have a 5-out inning. 2nd blown chance was ruled a hit even though it went in/out of his glove...1st was lost in the lights, also ruled a hit.
crunch (view)
welcome back happ! double off the wall 1st PA back.
crunch (view)
oh yeah, totally, i was just chiming about why i fan like i fan.
i would like nothing more than hendricks to keep on hendricks'ing. guys with his stuff can throw for a long, long time as long as it works.
he velocity is actually up a minor amount this year. it's really "damn" when a guy like him not only has gas in the tank, but it's looking like it was years ago. he added a curve a few years ago and it helped a little bit, but he's throwing it less and less while the fb/change combo are less effective.
Alexander Dimm (view)
CRUNCH—There is no one person in this community I’m talking about. My remarks were not directed at you or anyone, but at a tone I’ve noticed lately.
You have a great, dry sense of humor and there is thought behind your comments. You and I don’t always agree but I always understand your position.
Lastly, and I’ll be quiet, I agree with you on Hendricks. We can dislike the recent performance but still love the guy. Lots of questions about his future.