2015 Cubs
Mets Sweep Cubs
That happened...
Thanks everyone for everything all year.
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The Cubs are down 0-2 to the Mets in the NLCS
Well, shit.
Cubs Eliminate Cardinals
The Cubs defeat the Cardinals in four games to advance to the NLCS. Discuss!
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Cubs Win NL Wild Card Game
Arrieta and the Cubs make it look easy, and the Pirates stick to the script. Now onward to St. Louis. Game One of the NLDS starts Friday at 5:30pmCT: Lester vs. Lackey.
Go Cubs!
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Projecting End-of-Season Statistics
The Cubs will play their 54th game tonight, which will put them at the one-third mark of the baseball season. I thought it would be interesting to see what each player’s full season stats would be if we project out based on these first two months. For most players, it was as simple as taking their current stats (as of yesterday prior to the game) and multiplying by three. But for players who started in the minors or were injured, I have taken that into consideration and examined the percentage of days they have been on the roster when making the calculations. For Soler, I removed three weeks’ worth of stats to account for his current injury. The normal caveats, of course, apply. Players can get injured at any time, fall into slumps, or get hot, and so these will most definitely not look the final lines for a lot of these players. But it should provide a quick sense of how good/bad of a season players are currently having.
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Can the Cubs Really Improve Enough to Make the Playoffs?
The Cubs won 73 games last year, which was the most the team had won since 2010 and a respectable improvement on the 66 wins from 2013. But 73 is still a long way from the playoffs. It took 88 wins to make it last year and looking back the last 25 years that is almost always what it takes (other than about a dozen odd exceptions). Yet many pundits are giving the Cubs a strong chance of climbing all the way to the playoffs, and Cubs fans, of course, are hopeful of such a rise. So what does it look like when a team climbs from a win total in the low 70s one year to the high 80s the next? Is it about free agent acquisitions, recovery from injuries, or maturing young talent? Is there a typical path that teams take and are the Cubs on that path?
To answer these questions, I examined all playoff teams over the past 25 years (since 1990) and noted the number of wins they had the prior year. I excluded years 1994-1996 given the strike-shortened schedules that made comparisons difficult. Overall, there were 166 playoff teams in that span, and most were in the playoffs or had solid records the prior year (the average was 87 wins). There were, however, 41 teams that finished below .500 the year before. Of those, there were 16 teams that had 73 wins or less. This includes the Cubs three times. I touch on all 16 teams below to highlight some the paths teams have taken and conclude with thoughts on whether or not such a jump is realistic for the 2015 Cubs.
Recent comments
Bill (view)
A good rule of thumb is that if you trade a near-ready high ceiling prospect, you should get at least two far-away high ceiling prospects in return. Like all rules-of-thumb, it depends upon the specific circumstances, but certainly, we weren't going to get Busch for either prospect alone.
Sonicwind75 (view)
Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention". Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."
Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost. But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.
Sonicwind75 (view)
I suspect Brown will spend some time in the bullpen due to inning restrictions. Pitched only 93 innings last year and career high is 104 innings in 2022. I would expect them to be cautious with a young player with his injury history.
Childersb3 (view)
I wanted Almonte gone last week, but that was before Merryweather went down and Little got demoted. Almonte in his last 5 appearances has gone 4.1 IP with no ER or Runs. NO hits, 3 BBs and 8 SO. He did hit 96 with his 2S FB in AZ on Tues.
I don't see Jed waiving him when we have injuries all over and guys with options that can be sent down.
I probably won't like the move Jed makes, but he can't play the "let's hope no one wants his 1.7mil remaining deal and we can hide him in Iowa" card.
That's why I think the current Bullpen stays as is and Wicks goes to Iowa.
I don't like that, but that's the fix I see.
We'll find out soon enough!!!
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Teheran minor league deal is done, per MLB.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Based on Phil’s sound analysis it sounds like a no brainer for Almonte to be placed on waivers as today’s roster move. We shall see.
Arizona Phil (view)
I suspect Counsell/Hottovy will use the piggy-back extensively, with Taillon and Hendricks pitching as the "pig" (and with a very short leash) and some combo of Wicks, Brown, and Wesneski (whichever two do not start) as the "backers."
Keep in mind that Keegan Thompson has a minor league option available, and if Yency Almonte is not outrighted by 4/26 he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent after that date. Almonte is out of minor league options, so I am talking about him getting outrighted to the minors if he is not claimed off waivers, and if he is claimed off waivers, the Cubs save the pro-rated portion of his $1.9M salary, which helps lower the Cubs 2024 AAV.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Totally agree. The 26 man roster very rarely consists of the 13 best position players and 13 best pitchers.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Based on what Jed has done in the past, I’d say the plan is to
-give Hendricks another few starts
-give Taillon some runway ot get his season underway
-Mix and match in the bullpen and see what sticks
Jed usually doesn’t do a whole lot of waiver wire plays in-season, at least early in the season. He only reallly did that after he blew up the rosters in 21 and 22 because they needed bodies (guys like Schwindel, Fargas, etc).
I think he’s a little handcuffed by a full 40 man in that he can’t really maneuver much with giving anyone showing ability at AAA (R Thompson/ Sanders/ Edwards etc). Brewer has the most tenuous grip there, and we will see what kind of chance he gets. Other than his spot, there isn’t a ton of 40 man wiggle room.
I’m very curious to see what happens with Brown now that Taillon returns. Bullpen? Wicks to Iowa?
Childersb3 (view)
Pro teams have to play their "big money" guys if they are healthy and not "locker room" issues.
The Cubs wanted to deal JHey off well before they bought him out. They just didn't want to pay him to play for someone else for that long. Jed did give him 20+mil to play for LAD last yr.
Jed might also let Kyle walk at some point this year. Similar scenario to JHey, except Jed thought Kyle was going to be good/solid in '24!!
You'd think Smyly is in the same book as well. Same with Neris (he's a 1yr vet RP, so he's not really in this convo too much).
That's ~35mil between those three and those three are going to get opportunities until at least late June) over younger guys even if their performance is "iffy".
But, Jed is going to play Taillon a lot. They have to try and justify that contract and hope a veteran works out.
So, Taillon, Imanaga, and Hendricks are locks for the rest of April and probably May.
Assad, Brown and Wicks handle the last spots until Steele is ready.
Now, you're question has real merit when Steele comes back. That will interesting if Brown is still good and Hendricks is still bad. But Taillon is entirely safe as long as he's healthy.
And the bullpen moves were "money" based as well. Smyly has actually been okay. But he hasn't been clearly better than Little. Little had one bad outing. But Smyly makes 9mil. If they needed another RHRP and one of Little and Smyly had to go, it was going to Little. But that doesn't mean Smyly is one of the best 13 arms for the team.