Cubs Win Another Simulated NL Central Division

Baseball Prospectus had the Cubs running away with the NL Central a few weeks back. CHONE projections1 thinks it will be a tight race with the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the Cubs at 88 wins, just five ahead of the Cardinals, six ahead of the Reds and seven ahead of the Brewers.

Furthermore, they've got the Cubs listed 10th in their power rankings, fourth in the NL behind the Phillies, Mets and Braves.

I think we can infer two things from this new information. First, the Cubs aren't quite the locks to win the NL Central that some of us have led ourselves to believe. Second, that Sean Smith who runs the CHONE projections is a Cub-hater2. I think that's irrefutable. I even think I found a picture of him


1 - Is it pronounced Shawn? If so, I would have just called it the FIGGINS projections.

2 - Disclaimer: Sarcasm.

Comments

Nice footnote usage. I like it. I'll be looking for your annotated bibliography shortly.

Also, I'm willing to make a wager on just about any imaginable terms that all three of the Cards, Reds, and Brewers will not win 80 games.

90 wins for Cleveland seems high, too, considering the back 3 of their rotation is currently Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Laffey.

Furthermore, they have the Cubs projected to win more games than the 4 of the 5 teams ranked immediately in front of them in their power rankings. I know those two aren't directly connected, but still. Seems like a way to hurt your own credibility, doesn't it?

the braves?

okay, whatever.

btw...what is up with statheads and kotchman?

i just don't get it...it's like going apeshit over sean casey, but he's a favorite of a lot of statheads.

You didn't go apeshit over The Mayor when we was in Cincy? 99-2005 hit over .300 every season but 2 (.291 one of those seasons), averaged 36 doubles, about 15 HRs and 75 RBIs, never struck out more than 88 times and was 14th in MVP voting in 1999. Casey Kochman will be lucky to be as good as The Mayor

that's pretty much what i expect...well, maybe not consistent .300 hitting...

talking to some statheads they're ready to rub my face in the "fact" he's a 30+HR 40-ish double guy waiting to happen.

i have no idea wtf those people are watching or looking at.

i still find it odd they're burying his arm at 1st rather than trying him in the OF, but whatever...maybe he's not good at catching popups or something.

Doesn't Dunn have a cannon arm too? I liken the athletic ability in the field of Kotchman to that of Dunn's...horrible.

i wouldnt call kotchman's arm a cannon, but he's got a good one as far as velocity.

that said, i have no idea how the guy handles running/tracking stuff on the fly.

"90 wins for Cleveland seems high, too, considering the back 3 of their rotation is currently Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Laffey."

Mark Shapiro agrees. “If you had to point to one aspect of the club that I’m least comfortable with, it would be our rotation.” —General manager Mark Shapiro.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkTyy8aY2jHR...

If Westbrook can return at a decent level around the all-star break, they'll be okay. If they can get into the playoffs you only need two pitchers.

"If they can get into the playoffs you only need two pitchers."

Having 3 playoff caliber pitchers must be what's been killing us.

The FIGGINS projections also don't have a single team more than 9 games under .500, so obviously something is a miss

And somehow we won the division with 11 wins being the most for any starting pitcher...

Donnie Veal got the win for the Pirates in their opener against Philly.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=2902...

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/14495...

sore back...

article says Indians played Cubs today, but it was the Giants.

1 Cubs
2 Reds
3 Cards
4 Pirates
5 Brewers
6 Astros

Stop laughing. I'm serious.

Give me the over on the Cubs top four starters for wins and the under on ERA for all five of them, please, Mr. Figgins.

Yea... I would do the same. And I would possibly add Marshall to the list of over on the wins, under on the ERA also.

My fear on Marshall would be that he didn't get the 5th starter's gig, and then if he only pitches 90 bullpen innings you have to deal with the small sample size variability, but if he wins the job I'd throw him on there as well.

Agreed... I should have prefaced that with "if he is actually the #5 starter."

So let me get this straight. The Braves will be better than the Cubs, and there are 6 AL teams better than ANY NL team. Ummmm OK. Time to get back on their meds (or off their meds).

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  • crunch 3 hours 3 min ago view
  • My guy Addy

    jacos 3 hours 4 min ago view
  • oh, another a.russell HR...whatever.

    crunch 3 hours 18 min ago view
  • Dylan Cease throwing gas tonight for the Emeralds. In first three innings, has hit 100 mph six times, averaging 98 mph

    Eric S 3 hours 37 min ago view
  • Can I get a gif of Joe West's jowls waving as he chews gum?

    /Asking for a friend

    jacos 4 hours 1 min ago view
  • my gawd...that castillo-to-bryant pickoff was a thing of beauty. the knock on him in the minors being slow out of the crouch is looking less like a thing.

    crunch 4 hours 13 min ago view
  • bless your heart. *pinches cheeks*

    crunch 9 hours 9 min ago view
  • real shame I missed this week's episode of The Crunch Reporter.

    It's highly unusual.

    It does matter a little.

    It matters much less than you think.

     

     

    Rob G. 9 hours 12 min ago view
  • four winds field is awesome. it's crazy how minor league parks have "grown up" since the 80s/90s and that park was one of the late-80s models that showed a low-capacity ballpark could look like you're at something other than a highschool baseball game.

    crunch 10 hours 17 min ago view
  • On another topic....I returned to South Bend last night for the 2nd time this season (still haven't tried either the deep-fried mac & cheese sandwich nor "The Porknado", as the drive home is over an hour and that could get ugly), and was pleasantly surprised to find D. Underwood pitching in a rehab start. He looked good -- although, to be fair, these are low-A hitters -- fastball consistently at 94-95 (if the SB scoreboard is to be believed -- several pitches were clocked in the 30s...) and with good location.

    billybucks 11 hours 25 min ago view
  • he gains nothing, no advantage, no saving of resources, nothing...there is not a cost/benefit tradeoff...him letting the running game go on around him for others to control isn't gaining him an advantage elsewhere. it's putting him at a disadvantage even if it's not cashed in with a run.

    crunch 14 hours 6 min ago view
  • And out of respect for the rest of TCR, I'm done on this. I'm sure I'm not the only one in the other camp, but time to let it go. (Until the next Lester start. I kid.)

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 14 hours 9 min ago view
  • He is putting himself at a disadvanage. But how much of one relative to the rest of his game? He's not Justin Germano -- he's inarguably one of the best SPs in baseball, issue or not. It would be more of thing to discuss ad nauseum if it constantly caused him to give up runs and lose games. But it doesn't.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 14 hours 19 min ago view
  • shouting down my points about lester with "well, it didn't hurt" is like saying it doesn't matter if a guy starts out walking 3 guys every inning as long it's followed by a K and a double play.

    it's like elevating ERA and wins to a high level while ignoring what it took to get there.

    crunch 14 hours 24 min ago view
  • I'm asking how much it has hurt Lester and the Cubs this year. Do you have that answer?

    I legitimately don't recall you answering that quesion, apart from the condescending silliness you just posted. So if you did answer specifically about the impact of Lester's issue, I'd like to re-read it. Thanks.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 14 hours 38 min ago view
  • if runner = on base and pitcher = j.lester then lead = large

    if lead = large then probability of extra base on following hit > average of mean

    okay, enough of that silliness...

    ...you can read more on the thread i copy/pasted this from the last time you decided you needed to talk to me about me.

    crunch 14 hours 44 min ago view