Rule 4 Draft Update - D-Day +10
Ten days after the 2008 Rule 4 Draft, the Cubs have signed 23 of their 51 draft picks.
Ten days after the 2007 Rule Draft, the Cubs had signed 23 of their 50 selections, although they eventually signed 33.
Four of the Cubs 2007 selections (1st round pick 3B Josh Vitters, 12th round pick RHP/SS Ryan Acosta, 15th round pick LHP James Russell, and 44th round pick 1B Bryan Jost) were not signed until just prior to the August 15th deadline.
Acosta (Clearwater Central Catholic HS with an NLI signed with U. of Georgia) and Russell (with another year of eligibility remaining at the U. of Texas) received "over-slot" bonuses (Acosta getting "4th round money" and Russell getting "3rd round money") to give up their college careers (or potential college career in the case of Ryan Acosta), and Vitters got $3M+ to give up an opportunity to play college ball at Arizona State.
While the Cubs certainly want to sign RHPs Andrew Cashner (2008 1st round pick out of TCU), Aaron Shafer (2008 2nd round pick out of Wichita State), and Justin Bristow (2008 5th round pick out of East Carolina), they may not get the deals done for a while.
Also, a lot of the players selected by the Cubs in the lower rounds of the 2008 Rule 4 Draft (10th round and below) who did sign sign right away are being "followed" (scouted) while they play in collegiate or post-HS summer leagues, so the Cubs might end up making a few "over-slot bonus" offers to some of the lower-round picks before the August 15th deadline, just as they did last year with Acosta and Russell.
If it turns out the Cubs can't sign their 2008 1st and/or 2nd round picks (Cashner and/or Shafer), they would receive compensation picks in next year's draft (#20 overall in the 2009 draft if the can't sign Cashner, and/or #66 overall if the don't sign Shafer).
Cashner and Shafer are probably waiting to see what the draft picks chosen in proximity to their selections will get. If so, the 17th selection in the 1st round (two slots above Cashner) got $1.5M, and the 22nd selection in the 1st round (three slots below Cashner) got $1.4M. So Cashner should probably expect to get somewhere around $1.5M.
If Cashner wants substantially more than that, the haggling could go on until the August 15th deadline, but Cashner has expressed a desire to get a deal done quickly.
The 17th pick in the 2nd round (two slots above Shafer) got $644K, while the 28th pick in the 2nd round (nine slots below Shafer) got $563K. So Shafer should expect to get somewhere around $630K If he wants substantially more than that, he is unlikely to be signed until the August 15th deadline, and that's only if the Cubs really want him that badly. Otherwise they can just take the 2009 compensation pick (#66 overall).
And based on what 2008 Rule 4 5th rounders have received so far, Justin Bristow should probably expect to get a signing bonus in the vicinity of $175K. If he wants substantially more than that, the Cubs will likely wait until August to decide whether to sign him or not.
BTW, the Cubs 1st round (Supplemental) pick (#41 overall) SS Ryan Flaherty (Vanderbilt) received a $906K signing bonus, right about what would be expected for a player selected in that slot.
2008 RULE 4 DRAFT STATUS
* bats or throws left
# bats both
CUBS DRAFT PICKS SIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1-S. * Ryan Flaherty, SS (Vanderbilt) - at BOISE
3. Chris Carpenter, P (Kent State) - will report to FITCH PARK this week
4. * Matt Cerda, C/INF (Oceanside HS – Oceanside, CA) - at AZL CUBS
6. Josh Harrison, 2B (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
7. Luis Flores, C (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
8. * James Leverton, P (Texas Tech) - at BOISE
9. Jay Jackson, P (Furman) - at BOISE
12. * Jake Opitz, 2B (Nebraska) - at BOISE
13. * Tony Campana, OF (U. of Cincinnati) - at BOISE
14. Dan McDaniel, P (Chabot JC) - at AZL CUBS
15. Casey Coleman, P (Florida Gulf Coast) - at BOISE
16. * Ryan Keedy, 1B (UAB) - at BOISE
17. Jon Nagel, P (Independence CC) - at FITCH PARK (REHAB -TJS)
19. # David Macias, OF/IF (Vanderbilt) - at AZL CUBS
22. Tarlandus Mitchell, P (Alto HS - Alto, TX) - at AZL CUBS
23. * Ryan Sontag, OF (Arizona State) - at AZL CUBS
25. Rebel Ridling, 1B (Oklahoma State) - at BOISE
26. Josh Whitlock, P (West Virginia) - at BOISE
28. TeWayne Willis, OF (Lincoln Memorial U.) - at AZL CUBS
32. * Kurt Calvert, OF (Missouri) - at AZL CUBS
33. Sean Hoorelbeke, 1B (Central Michigan) - at AZL CUBS
34. Bubba O’Donnell, P (High Point) - at BOISE
36. Michael Brenly, C (UNLV) - at BOISE
2008 NDFA SIGNED BY CUBS AFTER RULE 4 DRAFT:
Eric Allen, P (King College) - at AZL CUBS
Tommy Mejia, P (Dominican College) - at BOISE
Mike Perconte, P (Murray State) - at BOISE
CUBS DRAFT PICKS STILL UNSIGNED AS OF 6-16-2008:
1. Andrew Cashner, P (TCU)
2. Aaron Shafer, P (Wichita State)
5. Justin Bristow, P (East Carolina)
10. Alex Wilson, P (Texas A&M)
11. Toby Matchulat, P (Wabash Valley CC)
18. * Jeffrey Beliveau, P (Florida Atlantic)
20. Jericho Jones, OF/P (Louisiana Tech)
21. * Logan Watkins, SS (Goddard HS – Goddard, KS) - signed NLI with Wichita State
24. David Cales, P/3B (St. Xavier U.)
27. Sonny Gray, P (Smyrna HS – Smyrna, TN) - signed NLI with Vanderbilt
29. Sean Buckley, 3B (King HS – Tampa, FL) - signed NLI with U. of South Florida
30. Cole White, P (Paris JC) - transferring to U. of New Mexico
31. # Kyle Wilson, 3B (Hill JC) - transferring to NC State
35. Ross Vagedes, P/OF (Wright State)
37. Erik Hamren, P (Saddleback CC)
38. Sean McNaughton, OF (BYU)
39. Jordan Brown, P (LSU)
40. * Jared McDonald, INF (Pima CC) - transferring to Michigan State
41. Jordan Petraitis, SS (Miami of Ohio)
42. Derek Riley, P (Chandler-Gilbert CC) - transferring to Arkansas State
43. Jesse Ginley, P (Dunnellon HS – Dunnellon, FL) - expected to attend St. Petersburg CC
44. David Doss, C/3B (South Alabama)
45. * Ashton Florko, P (U. of British Columbia)
46. Tony Zych, P (St. Rita HS - Chicago IL) - signed NLI with U. of Louisville
47. * Chad Cregar, RF (Western Kentucky)
48. Dylan Moseley, P (Louisiana Tech)
49. Hunter Scantling, P (Episcopal HS – Jacksonville, FL) - signed NLI with Florida State
50. Pete Levitt, P (Pitt CC)
At the start of the season the book was that he was trying to pitch to more contact so he could stay in the game longer and it seems to be working so far. Contact against is 77.5% this year and it was 70.2% the year before. He averaged 6.7 IP/game last year and so far it's 7 IP/game. His actual pitches per game are only down to 106.1/game from 107.2/game last year but if he's able to go a bit farther into games without throwing more pitches and without giving up more runs that is a good thing.
sale's skills and insane value makes it almost too hard to have a market for the guy...he's got 3/38m owed to him over 3 seasons (2 team options). he could easily pull in 30m/yr if he was on the market as a FA.
he's throwing a bit differently this season, especially with more sliders and less changeups like earlier in his career, but all his stuff still looks great even if the HRs are a little elevated and the Ks are down.
Torres, Happ, McKinney, Jimenez, and Candelario for Sale. Deal or no deal?
"The White Sox are reportedly asking for “five top prospects” for Chris Sale, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports."
Unless he develops 30+ HR power and keeps his walk rate close to his K rate at the MLB level, he's not going to turn into Prince Fielder. And even if he does turn into Prince Fielder, he's gonna have a short prime. His very limited athleticism is likely to also detract some value from his ability to reach base--I don't buy making an out as being preferable to base clogging, but you'd certainly prefer just about any base runner other than Vogelbach, David Ortiz, etc.
seeing as arod has played a total of 27.1 innings of D at 1st/3rd and somehow managed a -0.5 dWAR with his 1 error at 1st and an overall positive total zone rating...he might end up even more in the shitter via the characteristics/flaws/whatever of how some sites determine various WAR values. dWAR doesn't directly lead to a WAR value, but the 2 main entities pushing the most popular variations of WAR sometimes lead to some interesting discrepancies in value.
I have a lot of faith in Baez that he's going to turn into a more consistent, solid player. It looks like it took him about a half season or so of futility at the plate to figure out he was not talented enough to get away with the crazy approach he had. I think his running game will eventually have a more measured aggression.
I hope the D and bullpen show up. Cubs haven't had much luck against Davies, and he's been going well lately. A little uncomfortable with the Cards only 6.5 back--feels like they're right on our tails compared to the 11 game lead I've grown accustomed to.
Cardinals, stop that. Right now.
In a year or two, a lot of fans are going to point at trading him as a mistake. He'll probably be slashing something like 280/400/480 for Seattle at the time. Of course, by WAR, he'll still be worth less than 3, since we're talking zero defensive value.
vogelbomb debut for tacoma (AAA SEA)... 3-3, 1bb, 1 HR, 1 double...DH'd.
while he mostly played 1st considerably more than DH for AAA CHC, DJ Peterson is probably going to see most of the time at 1st for AAA SEA.
Carl Jr.! Very nice!
Baez with another "WTF?" play trying a delayed steal with a runner on 3rd and one out.. Remarkable talent, needs to make better decisions.
m.montgomery up in the pen with a man on 2nd, 2 out, and rondon 20 pitches into the inning.
...and rondon ends it 22 pitches in with a popout to RF.
I gotta say with the crappy defense the Brewers have displayed outside of Fowler I'm pretty disappointed the offense hasn't shown more and Rizzo seems to be very swing happy lately. That said my god am I happy Madden has finally given Carl Edwards a chance after multiple times up with nothing. I don't think he could handle a starting role with his body frame but his stuff plays so well in a relief role and he seems to be able to handle high stress situations very well.
2nd at bat. Fowler is good for the Cubs run differential.
welcome back fowler.
More slow news...
Did Davey Martinez have to bring the shotgun?